Month: December 2018

Daily Check-In 12/05/2018

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Flynn

So uh…

I’m not saying that I know for sure what is under the redacted phrase but “President Donald J. Trump” fits perfectly.

Remember I was talking about this yesterday? (Daily Check-In 12/04/2018)  This is by no means definitive proof that Trump is the target of one of the hidden investigations, but it doesn’t help disprove it.  Without going into a deep dive on fonts, this document appears to be written in Times New Roman, which is a proportional serif font.

So, what the hell does that mean?

Font Examples

The serif is that little flourish or squiggly thing hanging off of the edge of a letter.  Look at that capital “L”.  If you’re viewing this in Times New Roman, which is the font I’m typing this in, you should see that little upswing at the bottom of the ‘L’  That’s a serif.  It’s also on the ‘T’, ‘l’, ‘r’, and pretty much every letter and number.  If a font is Sans Serif, that means it doesn’t have a serif or flourish.

Proportional fonts are fonts in which each character has a different width, depending on the width of an a character.  For example, the ‘i’ takes less space than a ‘W’, since it is much more narrow.  Monospaced fonts, on the other hand, give each character the same width.  This is usually done by squeezing larger letters and extending smaller ones.

Now that that’s out of the way, why is any of that important?

The sentencing document was written in Times New Roman, 12 point font.  That last number is how big the typeface is.  Since TNR is a proportional font, that means that words or sentences of the same character length would have different physical lengths.  The words ‘Penguin’ and ‘Feature’ both have 7 letters, but are different lengths on the screen and printed copy.  It’s not much of a difference to the naked eye, but it’s there.  This difference expands as the word or sentence gets longer.  The phrase ‘Pittsburgh Penguin Center Sydney Crosby’ has as many letters as ‘I would like to ride a Pegasus to Ohio!’, but they are not the same length.

Pegasus

The longer a phrase or sentence gets, it becomes less likely that a two random phrases have the exact same length.  Unless all of the characters are the exact same, it’s pretty difficult to get two phrases longer than a couple words to match up perfectly.  That’s why what Scott Stedman found is so interesting.  The redacted block of text identifying the target of the criminal investigation matches perfectly with ‘President Donald J. Trump’.

Don’t get me wrong, this is all speculation at this point, and it could be anything else.  However, this is like a key.  It’s possible that two random keys fit the same lock, but the likelihood that both keys are completely independent of each other, yet located nearby and used in the same context is highly unusual.

 

Butina

Paul Erickson, a longtime Republican politico whose Russian girlfriend is in jail on charges she acted as a covert foreign agent, has been informed that he may face similar accusations. The Daily Beast reviewed a “target letter” that federal investigators sent Erickson’s lawyer, which said they are considering bringing charges against him under Section 951 of the U.S. code—the law barring people from secretly acting as agents of foreign governments.

The letter also said the government may bring a conspiracy charge against Erickson, who is the boyfriend of accused foreign agent Maria Butina. The letter, which was sent in September by investigators working out of the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington, does not accuse Erickson of any crimes or guarantee that he will face charges.

Uh oh.  Looks like someone’s in trouble…

Paul Erickson, a GOP Operative and Maria Butina’s “boyfriend”, just received a target letter from a U.S. Attorney.  Erickson, who helped Maria gain access to the highest levels of the GOP Establishment, is likely to be charged with being an agent of a foreign government.  If that sounds like espionage, it’s pretty damn close.  This law, often called spy-lite, is about as close to being charged as a spy as one can get without facing the death penalty.

Butina was arrested on July 16th, and it wasn’t long after that details of Erickson’s involvement came to the forefront. (Daily Check-In 07/16/2018, Daily Check-In 07/31/2018, Daily Check-In 07/20/2018).

 

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

Lobbyists representing the Saudi government reserved blocks of rooms at President Trump’s Washington, D.C., hotel within a month of Trump’s election in 2016 — paying for an estimated 500 nights at the luxury hotel in just three months, according to organizers of the trips and documents obtained by The Washington Post.

At the time, these lobbyists were reserving large numbers of D.C.-area hotel rooms as part of an unorthodox campaign that offered U.S. military veterans a free trip to Washington — then sent them to Capitol Hill to lobby against a law the Saudis opposed, according to veterans and organizers.

At first, lobbyists for the Saudis put the veterans up in Northern Virginia. Then, in December 2016, they switched most of their business to the Trump International Hotel in downtown Washington. In all, the lobbyists spent more than $270,000 to house six groups of visiting veterans at the Trump hotel, which Trump still owns.

Those bookings have fueled a pair of federal lawsuits alleging Trump violated the Constitution by taking improper payments from foreign governments.

During this period, records show, the average nightly rate at the hotel was $768. The lobbyists who ran the trips say they chose Trump’s hotel strictly because it offered a discount from that rate and had rooms available, not to curry favor with Trump.

“Absolutely not. It had nothing to do with that. Not one bit,” said Michael Gibson, a Maryland-based political operative who helped organize the trips.

Wow.  Just, wow.  As if this couldn’t get any crazier, here come the Saudis paying Trump over a quarter of a million dollars by using a lobbyist of theirs to house veterans at Trump’s DC hotel for the inauguration.

Here’s where it gets interesting.  When Trump was asked before whether or not the Saudis had any business at his hotels, they said no.  Technically speaking, that wasn’t wrong, as it was the lobbyist who paid for the rooms.  That’s what we call a middleman.  The middleman is the one on the receipt.  They turned around, put a markup on it, and gave it to the Saudis who paid them.

What’s worse is that they used veterans for this scam.

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

Rudy

Rudy Giuliani accidentally tweeted a domain. Someone bought that domain and wrote that Trump is a “traitor.” Giuliani is now blaming Twitter for this. The man in charge of the cyber. Just absolutely baffling.

New from me: I talked to Jason Velazquez, who bought and whom Giuliani thinks “invaded [his] text.” “This would normally be a place where’d I’d make a big political statement, but the nature of this is so hilarious maybe I won’t.”

Rudy Giuliani falsely blames Twitter after typo points to anti-Trump website

Rudy Giuliani alleged Twitter concocted a conspiracy to “invade my text” after he accidentally tweeted a URL to a website. Rudy did get very unlucky, though: The guy who bought the domain he inadvertently tweeted was a web designer late for improv class.

Remember, Trump named him the head of Cybersecurity.

Epstein

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

SCOTUS & COURTS

 

#METOO & WOMEN’S RIGHTS

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

STUDENT LOANS

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS & RELIGION

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

CONGRESS

 

ELECTIONS

Wisconsin

 

Michigan

 

North Carolina

1. Wow. There is a subplot to the election fraud scheme unfolding in North Carolina that is absolutely insane. This is DEEP in the weeds, but worth it. Let’s go.

2. So Jeff Smith owns a “video sweepstakes” business in Bladen County, which is apparently a place you an go and win money for playing video games. The head of the Bladen County GOP, Landon Bordeaux, goes to Smith and says that he’s about to get raided by the current sheriff.

3. But Bordeaux says, there’s an out. If Jim McVicker wins the 2014 election for sheriff, Smith will be in the clear. Bordeaux asks Smith to give McCrae Dowless $4000 IN CASH to help McVicker win. So Smith does it. And it works. McVicker wins by 350 votes!

4. But Smith gets stabbed in the back. McVicker raids his video-sweepstakes operation BACKED UP BY HELICOPTERS. Smith is pissed.

5. But apparently Smith does not blame McCrae Dowless, who, after all, did what he what he was supposed to do (If you overlook breaking N Carolina law) Smith agrees to let McCrae Dowless use an empty office in a building Smith owns to run his absentee ballot operation for Harris

standby have to take a phone call

6. OK, I’m back. So anyway everything is going swimmingly between McCrae Dowless and Smith until Smith finds out that McCrae Dowless isn’t just running his (probably illegal) absentee ballot operation for Harris — he’s also helping Smith’s arch nemesis McVicker!

7. This is apparently when Smith and McCrae Dowless become “former friends.” So when the current controversy erupts, Smith is more than happy to dime out McCrae Dowless to the Washington Post. Shows them the desk where Dowless sat and recieved the absentee ballots from his crew

8. Smith basically describes a whole bunch of illegal conduct by McCrae Dowless in fairly devastating fashion Well, someone (I don’t know who, but maybe McCrae Dowless) wasn’t happy about that Today, an even more devastating story emerged on Smith

9. The story on Smith involves a meeting that occurred during the 2018 primary. Smith was supporting Billy Ward in the GOP Primary to oust McVicker. At this point, he’s not working WITH McCrae Dowless, he’s on his own now At some point he attended a meeting & left behind NOTES

10. So today, one day after Smith dimed out McCrae Dowless to the Washington Post, these notes, written by Smith, make their way into the hands of a North Carolina reporter And they show Smith cooking up a scheme to pay CASH for UNSEALED ABSENTEE BALLOTS

11. Smith was clearly desperate to oust McVicker. But he’s not as good at rigging absentee ballots as McCrae Dowless. McVicker defeated his opponent and is still sheriff. Where is goes from here — I have no idea.

A lot of the details in this story come from a great New Yorker article that came out a couple hours ago so, I also recommend reading that:

Republican Operative Faced Prior Allegations of Election Fraud in Disputed North Carolina District

 

THINKING AHEAD

 

GEORGE H.W. BUSH

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

RUMOR MILL

With due respect , , there were numerous citizen journalists from Dec 2016 onwards that broke story after story. People like & plagiarized the work of & Dr John Schindler while concurrently attacking them both

The reasons it was important to call out Abramson & Nance were numerous. First, they both repeatedly stole work from various authors, attributing it as their own & monetized it. Second, in Nance’s case he misrepresented his roles & expertise in US IC

 

That’s it for Wednesday.  After the bombshells from Tuesday, it felt almost slow.  Well, as slow as a massive voter fraud, emoluments lawsuit, and an senior member of the Republican Establishment about to charged with being a foreign agent can get.

Manafort’s sentencing document is due Friday.  I don’t think we’ll see it before then.

I’m going to update Cooperating Witnesses to include Michael Cohen.  I forgot to do that last week.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 12/04/2018

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Flynn

Folks unless I’m mistaken, the structure of the memo is: Criminal investigation Mueller investigation (2 parts) Third entirely redacted investigation, really short description

I believe this is the structure of the cooperation section. So the second part of his Mueller cooperation is the longest. That could be the Seychelles stuff, it could be the Ukraine peace deal, or it could be how he got fired.

And this is what the intro structure works out to be.

Updated this to correlate with the introductory paragraph.

Yep.  The fecal matter has hit the air circulation device.  This is a little bit of what we’ve been waiting for. (Daily Check-In 12/03/2018).  It’s been a little over a year since Mike Flynn was arrested and officially cooperated with Special Counselor Robert Mueller. (Daily Check-In 12/01/2017).  Now, we finally see how much he’s cooperated, and what direction they’re heading in.

Well, not quite.  A lot of the information was redacted.  But that won’t stop me from reading between the lines.  In some cases, literally reading between the lines.

Here’s what we know for certain: Mueller says Flynn’s cooperation was timely, firsthand, thorough, honest, and helped get others to flip.  Flynn met with the SCO 19 times.  19.  There’s also multiple investigations that he’s cooperating with.  He gave Mueller documents, communications, and anything else he had.  Flynn was so helpful that Mueller recommend no jail time.

What don’t we know for certain: We don’t know what those other investigations include, or how many there are.  We don’t know who are the targets, what are their scopes, or how far along they are.

What will we speculate: Oh boy, we’re going to Speculation Land!

First, he sung like a canary.  He gave up EVERYTHING.  Mike Flynn was in some serious trouble. (Flipping Flynn).  Bribery, FARA, Espionage, Treason, Kidnapping, and a few other things like leaving the toilet seat up and not tipping 15% for good service.  He might still get charged with those other crimes under superseding indictments, but assuming he doesn’t, Mueller’s recommending he doesn’t serve any jail time for his crimes.

Why give such a lenient sentence?  Because he hand-delivered bigger fish.  He saw everything, knew everyone and everything, and took part in all of it.  The only way he doesn’t get prison time is he has enough evidence to build a solid case against the people above him.  And, in the Grand Bargain, there were only a few people above him.  Trump and Pence are two of the most likely suspects.

Second, there are probably 3 investigations going on that Flynn gave up information on, and two of them are so secret that they were redacted.  Well, mostly redacted.  One line  ends with “Criminal Investigation”, and I’ll post the tweet tomorrow from Scott Stedman where he speculates that, based on the size of the redact, that it’s an investigation into Trump himself.  The third investigation is completely hidden from view.  That’s the interesting one.

Finally, Mueller isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.  We can safely speculate that all of this information is safely in the hands of the courts.  All of it.  Flynn’s almost certainly testified before a grand jury.  The unredacted version is sitting in a DC courtroom today, along with all of the related evidence.  Everything is ready, waiting for a Senior Assistant Special Counselor to say the word and unseal EVERYTHING.

The FBI started investigating Team Trump in Summer 2016.  That’s 2 and a half years ago.  Mueller’s been on the case since May 2017.  They’ve had all the time in the world to plan this out.  Trump just lashes out like a toddler having a temper tantrum.  All of his moves are telegraphed long ahead of time, and easy to predict and deflect.

 

Roger Stone

1/ Generally speaking, the Fifth Amendment does not apply to the production of documents. The exception is when the mere act of producing the documents would itself be incriminating.

CNNVerified account @CNN

President Donald Trump’s confidant Roger Stone is rebuffing a request from the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee for documents and an interview connected to 2016 Russian election meddling, invokin…

2/ For instance, if you’re under investigation for stealing classified information, and you’re subpoenaed for that information, the mere act of producing the information would incriminate you.

3/ It is very rare for the “act of production” to incriminate you, and for that reason, I suspect that Stone is likely improperly asserting the Fifth here. To get around that, prosecutors can give “act of production” immunity.

4/ That essentially means that the prosecution can still use the document, but they can’t say where they got it from. Here, I suspect House Democrats will discuss with Mueller whether giving “act of production” immunity would undercut him at all. /end

1/ Roger Stone’s attorney was once with the firm of Rothstein, Rosenfeldt, Adler. All three of those men went to jail for their role in a massive $1.8 billion Ponzi scheme. Roger worked in their offices and was paid over $400,000 for “services” to Scott Rothstein,

2/ This is one of about a bazillion South Florida politics stories where Roger is up to his ass with weirdos, skeeze, and scammers.

3/ Some of RS’s work for Rothstein was to help relect the Charlie Crist. Rothstein once spent $52,000 on a cake for Crist. lol.

Roger picked the best day possible to do this.  Most other days, news that the former Presidential Advisor planned on pleading the Fifth Amendment would be the biggest story.  Not so today.

The Fifth Amendment protects a person from testifying against oneself and incriminating oneself in a crime.  However, like all things with Roger and his buddies, they screwed something up.  A person can only plead the fifth for testimony, not for producing documents.  Only in a situation where producing said document would be illegal in itself can it be protected.  Secret Twitter messages and texts won’t count.

 

 

NRCC HACK

At this point, we don’t have evidence that the Russians performed this hack.  However, we do know that they hacked the Republican Party in 2016, and this fits their Modus Operandi.

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

Emoluments

 

Epstein

 

Stormy

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

WHITAKER

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

#METOO & WOMEN’S RIGHTS

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

STUDENT LOANS

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

Chaos has erupted at a conservative think tank after it was revealed that one of its new donors is Len Blavatnik, the Ukrainian-born billionaire who owns the Warner Music record label.

Charles Davidson — the founder of the Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative, a group dedicated to exposing threats by authoritarian regimes to US democracy — said he quit as its executive director upon learning that the Hudson Institute had accepted a $50,000 donation from Blavatnik.

“Russian kleptocracy has entered the donor pool of Hudson Institute,” Davidson said in an exclusive interview with The Post. “Blavatnik is precisely what the Kleptocracy Initiative is fighting against — the influence of Putin’s oligarchs on America’s political system and society — and the importation of corrupt Russian business practices and values.”

Blavatnik — long friendly with bigwig politicians like Bill Clinton and movie makers like Martin Scorsese — made his fortune in the controversial privatization auctions of 1990s post-Soviet Russia, scooping up valuable aluminum companies on the cheap.

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS & RELIGION

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

CONGRESS

 

ELECTIONS

Wisconsin & Michigan

 

Georgia

 

North Carolina

Ok, this is a crazy ass story that needs more attention.  It’s been brewing for a few weeks, but it might have finally gained critical mass.  Here’s the election fraud that the Republicans scream about all of the time.  Except, they’re the ones performing it.

Here’s how the scheme worked:  A GOP Operative hired some people to collect mail-in ballots from people that haven’t been mailed in yet.  They’d get those people to sign them, but not seal them, whether or not they’ve been filled in.  It’s better if they’re not filled in or sealed because what they’ll then do is fill them out for their candidate, usually the Republican.

It sounds like there’s been an ongoing investigation since 2016, when similar shenanigans took place.  Plus, it might be that this was done for the Sheriff of Bladen County, not for the House seat.

The reason why this investigation started is the statistics didn’t make sense.  In every other county in North Carolina, there were more Democratic absentee ballots submitted than Republican, and they typically voted along party lines.  Except Bladen County.  Here, it was overwhelmingly Republican votes, regardless of party affiliation.  There were no mitigating factors that could explain the discrepancy.  Bladen didn’t have any special elections or amazing characters running for office.  Why the difference?

Turns out it looks like voter fraud.  And this year, the result was close enough that they had to look closely at the mail-in votes.

 

GEORGE H. W. BUSH

 

THINKING AHEAD

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

RUMOR MILL

Fuck.  When Countercheckist smiles, people in the White House get nervous.

 

That’s it for Tuesday.  The week is just heating up, and it already feels like it should be over.  But, we still have a long way to go.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 12/03/2018

Monday, December 3, 2018 and the weekend

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Cohen’s Claims

It’s been quite a few days for Michael Cohen.  After his plea agreement on Thursday (Daily Check-In 11/29/2018) and revelations about what that meant on Friday (Daily Check-In 11/30/2018), it might seem like it’s hard to top what’s happening.  It looks like over the weekend, we’re still seeing the fallout of that bombshell.

According to these new reports, Cohen was talking to Trump’s legal team and White House staff while he was getting his story straight.  I’m not a lawyer, but admitting to working with the legal team of the person you’re lying for sounds like it might be a crime.  Like, Conspiracy to Obstruct Justice or Witness Tampering.

 

Cohen Sentencing

THREAD: What does Michael Cohen’s sentencing submission tell us about his cooperation against Trump and the potential involvement of others in his criminal conduct? (Short answer: A lot more than you might expect)

1/ Late on Friday night, Michael Cohen’s attorneys filed his sentencing submission. It is really worth a read:

2/ A sentencing memorandum is a document that defense attorneys write and submit to a court before a client is sentenced so that the judge can consider all of the facts and circumstances surrounding their client and his conduct when he is sentenced.

3/ Judges are required to consider the “history and characteristics” of the defendant as well as the “nature and circumstances” of the offense, so the types of information provided in a sentencing memorandum can be extensive.

4/ In many cases, there are disputes between the prosecutors and defense about what the defendant did, what sentencing guidelines apply to the defendant, or what the sentence should be. In the case of a cooperator like Cohen, I expect the only disagreement to be the sentence.

5/ It’s important to note that if a cooperator like Cohen made a false factual assertion about his cooperation or his criminal activity, the prosecutors would make that known to the judge. You can be confident that this document is consistent with Mueller’s knowledge.

6/ It is carefully written by an attorney who was a former high-ranking federal prosecutor in New York who knows that if he said something false or misleading, the New York federal prosecutors would make the judge aware of the falsehood and he would be very much worse off.

7/ I give you this background because there is very interesting information in this document, and part of what makes it interesting is that the info is specific and is made in the context where we can feel confident in its accuracy, even though it’s written by an advocate.

8/ The most interesting thing in the document, by far, is Cohen’s discussion of his false statements to Congress. His attorneys carefully discuss the false statements, his motivation to make the false statement, and the involvement of Trump’s staff and attorneys.

9/ Because the precision of their words is important, I’m going to type out their exact words here. They refer to Trump as “Client-1” throughout but I’ve changed that to “Trump” here for clarity:

10/ “Michael’s false statements to Congress likewise sprung regrettably from Michael’s effort, as a loyal ally and then champion of Trump, to support and advance Trump’s political messaging. At the time that he was requested to appear before . . .”

11/ “the [House and Senate Intel Committees], Michael was serving as personal attorney to the President, and followed daily the political messages that both Trump and his staff and supporters repeatedly and forcefully broadcast.”

12/ “Furthermore, in the weeks during which his then-counsel prepared his written response to the Congressional Committees, Michael remained in close and regular contact with White House based-staff and legal counsel to Trump.”

13/ That last sentence is extremely important and interesting. It is also very carefully worded. The sentence strongly implies that White House staff and Trump’s attorneys knew in advance that Cohen would lie to Congress and were involved in crafting his statements.

14/ But it does *not* come out and say that. It is important to note that Cohen’s attorney does not allege that Cohen was *directed* to lie to Congress. Yet Cohen’s lawyer has not been shy about having him say that Trump directed him to commit the campaign finance violations.

15/ If he could truthfully say that Cohen was *directed* to lie, I believe he would be obligated to do so because it would be a mitigating fact that the judge should consider. But Cohen’s attorney suggests that Cohen felt pressure to lie and that Trump’s staff and attorneys knew.

16/ Essentially what Cohen’s attorney is saying is that Cohen read Trump’s anti-Mueller messaging (discussed at length in the memorandum), knew that he was supposed to be consistent with Trump’s lies, and did so.

17/ He was also in “close and regular contact” with White House staff and Trump’s lawyers about what he would say. The implication is that they knew the testimony he was going to provide to Congress was false and let him go forward and lie, or at least didn’t correct the record.

18/ So do Trump’s staff members and attorneys have any liability? Possibly, although it appears that they tried to be careful to mislead Congress and the public in a manner that would not create personal liability.

19/ Specifically, it sounds like they knew Cohen would lie to Congress and didn’t stop him or correct the record. But they didn’t tell him what lies to say or direct him to lie because *they didn’t have to.” Cohen read Trump’s lies and knew he was supposed to repeat them.

20/ Depending on what Trump’s staff and attorneys knew, this could very well be a conspiracy to lie to Congress, which is a crime. (A conspiracy is just an agreement to commit a crime.) But it may be extremely difficult to prove based on what Cohen’s attorney said.

21/ What it would take to prove a conspiracy of that nature is testimony from another co-conspirator (a Trump attorney or staffer) that their conversations with Cohen were a way for him to run his lies past them for approval, and they approved the lies.

22/ Emails or other documentation proving that point would also potentially prove a conspiracy along those lines. I suspect that Mueller and House Democrats will try to find out what evidence exists of knowledge, approval, or coordination of Cohen’s lies.

23/ If all that happened is that Cohen told them he would lie and they didn’t stop him, that is not a crime, which is why they may have just listened. Their silence and failure to stop him was their approval, but also makes it hard to prove they were aware of his lies.

24/ Their defense would be that Cohen testified about many matters and that they weren’t focused on these specific portions of his testimony, and/or that they didn’t even know those portions of his testimony were false at the time. Prosecutors would have to prove otherwise.

25/ That is why emails or testimony from some of them would likely be needed to support a conviction. So what does the rest of the sentencing memorandum say? Quite a bit.

26/ First, the sentencing memorandum repeats the statement Cohen made under oath that Trump directed Cohen to commit the campaign finance violations, and provides important context to help the judge understand those violations and Trump’s involvement in them.

27/ Specifically, Cohen “kept his client [Trump] contemporaneously informed and acted on his client’s instructions. This is not an excuse, and Michael accepts that he acted wrongfully …”

28/ “… Nevertheless, we respectfully request that the Court consider that as personal counsel to Trump, Michael felt obligated to assist Trump, on Trump’s instruction, to attempt to prevent Woman-1 and Woman-2 from disseminating narratives …”

29/ “… that would adversely affect the Campaign *and* cause personal embarrassment to Trump and his family.” That last line is an attempt by Cohen’s attorney to suggest that the offense is less serious than if the payments were just meant to influence the election.

30/ That is *not* a legal defense. It’s a crime nonetheless, and Cohen acknowledges that. His attorney minimizes the conduct because his job is to provide context that would reduce Cohen’s sentence. He’s doing his job.

31/ That’s also why he is pointing to the extent to which Cohen kept Trump informed of his actions at the time–more detail on that is given in the memorandum–and acted on his orders. It’s not an excuse but it helps provide context that explains why he committed the crimes.

32/ The next interesting part of his memorandum is its description of Trump’s legal and PR strategy. This is quite a statement to make on behalf of the president’s former personal lawyer:

33/ Cohen was “personally aware of Trump’s repeated disavowals of commercial and political ties between himself and Russia, as well as the strongly voiced mantra of Trump that investigations of such ties were politically motivated and without evidentiary support.”

34/ What Cohen’s lawyer carefully does not say is whether those statements are true or false. But he immediately follows that statement by focusing on the specific falsehood at issue here and noting that it was also part of Trump’s false messaging.

35/ Part of what is going on here is that Cohen’s attorney is explaining that Trump’s extreme strategy of casting the entire investigation of him as false is a mitigating circumstance the judge should consider when taking into account his own crime of lying to Congress.

36/ But the description itself is quite an acknowledgement on his part. The last part of Cohen’s sentencing memorandum that is worth discussing here is his description of his cooperation. Cohen described in detail his cooperation with Mueller and other prosecutors.

37/ Cohen said that he participated in seven separate interviews with Mueller and that he met with representatives of the New York Attorney General concerning their civil lawsuit against the Trump Foundation and provided documents to them.

38/ Cohen also said that he met with the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance and has complied with numerous requests for information from them. Also, Cohen claims that the decision to push forward without a traditional cooperation deal was his own decision.

39/ He claims he is eager not to delay his sentencing, and wants to be sentenced now before his cooperation is completed, even though he intends to cooperate further. This is a very unusual and risky strategy by Cohen. The judge can’t be sure that he will continue cooperating.

40/ Once he is sentenced, the leverage that prosecutors have over him is reduced although it still exists and he has done a good job of demonstrating to the judge that he has fully cooperated, intends to continue to cooperate, and merits a low sentence.

41/ And that brings me to the last point. After disputing how the sentencing guidelines are calculated–Cohen believes the guidelines range should be 46 to 57 months–he asks for time served. I don’t believe he will receive a sentence of time served.

42/ That said, based on my experience prosecuting and defending federal criminal tax and fraud violations, I expect Cohen to receive a sentence well below the guidelines range. He will get some prison time but it may be less than some uninformed or disingenuous observers predict.

43/ One last point before I go: I wrote this from 2 a.m. to 4:10 a.m. and it may get lost in the morning. If you read this thread and found it informative, please consider retweeting it in the morning because I’d like people to see it when they wake up tomorrow. /end

I’m curious to see how this goes.  Because of Trump’s screaming about him getting a long prison sentence, his lawyers could actually use that in their defense.

 

Stone

 

Manafort

YEAY!!!!  I’m trying not to get my hopes up too much, but it’s hard not to get a little excited about this.

 

Comey

 

Witness Tampering

THREAD: Did Trump engage in witness tampering this morning when he tweeted in praise of Roger Stone’s refusal to cooperate with prosecutors?

Renato Mariotti Retweeted Donald J. Trump

1/ This morning Trump tweeted the following in praise of Roger Stone’s refusal to cooperate with Mueller:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump

“I will never testify against Trump.” This statement was recently made by Roger Stone, essentially stating that he will not be forced by a rogue and out of control prosecutor to make up lies and stories about “President Trump.” Nice to know that some people still have “guts!”

2/ @gtconway3d, @neal_katyal and other highly respected attorneys quickly noted that Trump’s tweet looks a lot like witness tampering. They’re right—it does. But proving beyond a reasonable doubt that it’s witness tampering is more challenging than it might seem at first glance.

3/ I’ve included the relevant jury instruction below. Mueller would need to prove, among other things, that Trump had “corrupt” intent and acted with the intent to cause Stone to withhold testimony.

4/ Trump has said and done many things over the last two years that suggest that he often acts with the intent to impede the Mueller investigation—I collected many of them in the piece I wrote in January (below).

5/ But for purposes of a stand-alone witness tampering charge, what matters is Trump’s intent when he wrote this specific tweet. Evidence of his other acts would be very relevant but not dispositive.

6/ Trump’s lawyers would argue that the purpose of his tweet was to influence the public, not Stone, and that they could have spoken to Stone’s attorney privately if Trump actually wanted to influence him.

7/ Trump says a great many things on Twitter and isn’t careful with his words, so some courts have concluded that his words can’t be taken literally or seriously. Here is a short thread discussing those cases (which of course were in a different context):

Brad HeathVerified account @bradheath

The Justice Department says in a new court filing that when it comes to FISA declassifciation, President Trump doesn’t know what he’s tweeting about.

8/ Prosecutors would likely respond that by speaking broadly to the public instead of privately to Stone, Trump was trying to influence Stone in a manner that gave him plausible deniability.

9/ They would point to Michael Cohen’s recent sentencing memorandum, in which his attorney said that Cohen lied in part due to Trump’s messaging. My thread discussing that is below:

10/ Because of the challenges of proving “corrupt” intent, and the legal challenges Trump could bring, I think the best way for a prosecutor to charge today’s tweet would be as part of a larger conspiracy to obstruct justice, instead of as a stand-alone crime.

11/ I’ve been convinced since January that Trump obstructed justice for the reasons I explained in the piece linked earlier in the thread. That larger scheme would be easier to prove than a case based on a single tweet.

12/ But since the U.S. Senate, not ordinary Americans, would be the jury it’s unclear to me how much this will matter. It’s hard for me to imagine 20 Republican Senators voting to convict Trump for obstructing justice. It’s unclear what it would take for them to convict. /end

 

 

 

NEW – More behind-the-scenes jockeying from Mueller in the mystery grand jury subpoena fight we’ve been following that’s headed for a closed-door oral argument in the US Court of Appeals DC Circuit on Dec. 14.

The hidden case is back.  (Daily Check-In 11/23/2018) 18-3071, set for oral arguments on December 14th.

There’s been some theories as to whom is on the receiving end of this case, but I’d like to throw a new name out.

Mike Pence.

If it were Trump, he probably would have tweeted about it by now, or talked about this case in an interview.  It’s possible that he’s staying quiet on this because of how important it is.  And, given how it’s being handled, this has to be a big fish.  How many other big fish are left with direct White House ties?

Fuck, why did I ask that question.  There’s Pence, Trump, Kushner, Kremlin Barbie, McGahn, Flood, the secretaries, and a bunch of other people. But the biggest fish left are Trump and Pence.  Especially in a fight against a subpoena.

Pence has been quiet since this all began.  Very quiet.  Almost too quiet.  And considering how much he’s tied into the mess with Flynn and Manafort, he should be very nervous.

I still think it’s Trump, but don’t forget about Pence.

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

Epstein

 

1MDB

 

Emoluments

 

Stormy

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

G-20

 

TRUMP VS MILITARY

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

IMMIGRATION

 

SCOTUS & COURTS

 

#METOO & WOMEN’S RIGHTS

 

COLD WAR 2.0

Ukraine

 

Iran

 

Israel

 

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

 

TRADE WAR, HEALTH CARE, & ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS & RELIGION

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

CONGRESS

 

ELECTIONS

Wisconsin

 

North Carolina

 

 

 

THINKING AHEAD

Okay. I wanna say something about this obsession with rural white America. This is gonna be a thread.

I worked in Marion and Mahaska counties in Iowa as a Field Organizer in 2016. My job was to organize rural Democrats to get out the vote. It meant speaking to a TON of rural white voters. The two counties together have a population of about 50,000, with the biggest town at 11k.

These are exactly the voters Bernie and his supporters keep saying we should reach, that we are failing without reaching them. And, they propose, consistently, that the “pain and suffering” of these rural counties is economic.

That’s the drumbeat of the Bernie movement, essentially: “It’s the economy, stupid.” We’re leaving the rural white voting population behind because we’ve been alienating them by talking about social issues all the time and not how we’re going to help them economically.

In my experience, talking and working with rural voters every. single. day from July 2016 to November 2016? They aren’t that concerned about the economy and losing their farms, at least not where federal elections are concerned.

You’d think if the problem was economic, that’d be cited as a reason for reluctance to vote for Hillary, that there would be a clearer divide. That the narrative being imposed upon rural whites by a coastal elite (Bernie) that their concern is economic would ring true.

Nope. I was told that they weren’t voting for Hillary because she’s a woman, because they don’t trust women to lead, because she leaned too far into being pro-choice, that they disagreed with Dems on social issues.

I got asked why I was in favor of killing babies and told by a rural farmer with a disabled daughter that he was worried about “them Mexicans at the border.”

No one talked about the farm bills. When the economy was brought up, it was with a favorable view to Dems, as Dems had brought wind power to the state and provided a new industry.

My mom consistent volunteers were rural lesbians and queer people. Social issues were what people wanted to talk about on the doors, not the economy. I simply didn’t see Bernie’s narrative reflected on the ground.

And I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather keep those firebrand lesbians in the party than try to sacrifice them to court the racist old white farmer who won’t vote for anyone but a white man regardless.

(sorry for the typos. I just woke up and haven’t had my coffee yet).

 

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

Puff, Puff, Pass

 

Medicare for All

In my on-boarding to Congress, I get to pick my insurance plan. As a waitress, I had to pay more than TWICE what I’d pay as a member of Congress. It’s frustrating that Congressmembers would deny other people affordability that they themselves enjoy. Time for #MedicareForAll.

Also, pretty sure one Dante’s Circles of Hell includes scrolling through a mirror-hall of agonizingly similar healthcare plans like “UHG Choice Master HMO 1800” vs “RedGo Option Plus EPO 2000.” I don’t know one normal person in this country that actually enjoys open enrollment.

People don’t want overly complicated choice between pricey, low-quality plans. We want an affordable solution that covers our needs, like the rest of the modern world. Medicare for All: – Single-payer system – Covers physical, mental, & dental care – 0 due *at point of service*

 

GEORGE H.W. BUSH

Listen people the Bush family are not our friends. Don’t get so salty with critiques of a president who helped destabilize the Middle East & empower the modern GOP. They’re a garbage barge imperialist stain on this country.

The reactions to this post are the strangest thing about the Trump era IMO. Everyone forgets *how terrible* the Bush family was/are. Trump is terrible too! Both things can be true.

If you’re a person who thinks the Bush family is good or was good or is somehow exempt from historical criticism then yes you should unfollow me. Do some reading or some remembering. The world is the way it is now largely Bc of them.

Ten years ago all you haters were saying GWB was the worst president of all time, and fifteen years before that how lucky we were to be rid of the Reagan/Bush evil empire. Come back to reality plz.

Now come the hagiographies & the wishful delusions that if only we had a man who gave use Willie Horton/Clarence Thomas/Middle East destabilization/Saudi extremism & more we’d be A-Ok. It’s so disingenuous.

The only thing I’m interested in is the truth & I don’t care how uncomfortable that makes anyone. One reason we’re in this mess in the first place is bc very few people are willing to have an honest conversation.

Here’s the thing with 41…

I don’t like him.  I never really liked him, but he was the least despicable Republican President of my life.  That’s a pretty short list, but I’d put him as the least hated.  I’m not in mourning, but I didn’t celebrate his death like I did with Reagan, either.  With Ronnie, I wasn’t going to go out at all that night until I saw his death announced on the news.  Just like how he tried to kill the unions in this country, I tried to kill a dozen beers that night.  With 41, I might look back more fondly on him if his son wasn’t also President.

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

RUMOR MILL

“WikiLeaks walks like a hostile intelligence service and talks like a hostile intelligence service. It has encouraged its followers to find jobs at CIA in order to obtain intelligence. It directed Chelsea Manning in her theft of specific secret information …”

“And it overwhelmingly focuses on the United States, while seeking support from anti-democratic countries and organizations. It is time to call out WikiLeaks for what it really is – a non-state hostile intelligence service often abetted by state actors like Russia….”

“In January of this year, our Intelligence Community determined that Russian military intelligence—the GRU—had used WikiLeaks to release data of US victims that the GRU had obtained through cyber operations against the Democratic National Committee….”

“And the report also found that Russia’s primary propaganda outlet, RT, has actively collaborated with WikiLeaks.” — Mike Pompeo, 13 APR 2017

Translation (c/o Trump’s *OWN* D/CIA and now SECSTATE): Wikileaks = GRU. GRU is Putin’s rancid, murderous MI service. IC knows it. Mueller & OSC know it. If you collaborated with WikiLeaks in 2016 to get HRC/DRC’s stolen emails, you were working with GRU. That simple, folks.

 

That’s it for the last few days.  I’m wondering what will happen on Tuesday with Flynn’s sentencing.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets delayed again, but I’m optimistic that this time it will include some specifics, and that he’ll go to jail.  The only way he doesn’t go to jail is if he flipped on someone bigger than him, and there’s not many above him in the food chain.

Also, a little spoiler for Tuesday’s post, but Epstein settled out of court at the last minute.  Shit.  I was looking forward to everything this could bring.  I hope that more attention is given to this case, and that the women will finally get their say in court.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 11/30/2018

Friday, November 30, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Cohen

Sater also said that the pair stopped working on the Moscow deal as soon as the issue of Russian election hacking emerged in the news because it became clear it would become a political liability.

In fact, he said, it is not a coincidence that, according to court documents filed today, Michael Cohen canceled a planned trip to Moscow on June 14, 2016 — the same day the Post broke the story that Russians had hacked the Democratic National Committee.

“As soon as the Russian stuff broke, it was like, well, this deal is over,” Sater said.

We’re going to hear a lot more about the events Cohen was neck deep in, but I like the way this actually makes sense.  According to Felix Sater, he and Michael Cohen worked on the Trump Tower Russia project right up until they saw Peskov’s name in the Washington Post, connected to the DNC hacking.

At least, that might be how far Felix took his part in this opera.

There are two important points to keep in mind.

  1. All of this is happening because of 1 series of lies.  There are dozens of things that were lied about.
  2. Everyone that testified had the same story about those meetings.

This was an organized conspiracy to cover up what happened, and who knew about what.  It wasn’t just one person lying about an insignificant detail.  It was dozens of people telling the same story.

 

Mueller’s team is preparing the “Crimes and Lies” report.  From their description last week, they were ready to roll with this any day and had this cooking for a while.

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

“I had sexual intercourse with [Alan] Dershowitz at least six times,’’ Roberts wrote in the 2015 court affidavit. “The first time was when I was about 16, early on in my servitude to [Jeffrey] Epstein.’’

Even from jail, sex abuser manipulated the system. His victims were kept in the dark The special treatment given to Jeffrey Epstein didn’t end when the Palm Beach multimillionaire avoided hard time despite allegations that he’d se… miamiherald.com       

“Roberts says she was 16 and working as a locker room attendant at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort when she was approached by Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffrey Epstein’s associate, about becoming a masseuse for Epstein.” Roberts’ father worked at the resort as a maintenance man.

“Acosta… would explain that he was unduly pressured by Epstein’s heavy-hitting lawyers” [including Harvard professor Alan Dershowitz] to manipulate the criminal justice system in Epstein’s favor. Alex Acosta is now Donald Trump’s Labor secretary.

How a future Trump Cabinet member gave a serial sex abuser the deal of a lifetime Palm Beach multimillionaire Jeffrey Epstein was accused of sexually abusing dozens of underage girls. Prosecutors, including future Trump la… miamiherald.com       

NEW: According to two people close to Donald Trump, the Miami Herald investigation, published Wednesday, was “not helpful” to Acosta, who wanted to be Attorney General. He was a federal prosecutor in Florida before becoming Labor Secretary.

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

G20

 

30ykny3goea11

 

TRAITOR TOTS

Elliott Broidy, a Los Angeles-based businessman who was a finance vice chairman of Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign and inauguration committees, was paid to lobby the Trump administration to try to end an investigation related to the embezzlement of billions of dollars from a Malaysian state-owned fund, according to court filings made public on Friday.

The filings were released in connection with a guilty plea entered by George Higginbotham, a former Justice Department employee. Mr. Higginbotham admitted to conspiring to lie to banks about the source of tens of millions of dollars he funneled into the United States from the Malaysian financier Jho Low, who federal authorities say masterminded a scheme to loot the 1 Malaysia Development Berhad fund, also known as 1MDB.

Mr. Higginbotham, who left the Justice Department in August, was not involved in the department’s investigation of Mr. Low, and is cooperating with prosecutors.

 

. Your campaign gave US voter data to a guy in Russia named Yaroslav Leontenko. He wrote code directly into your official campaign app. His work also included translating that app framework text into the Russian language for use in other campaigns. Explain yourself.

Yaroslav’s sister describes him, on at least one occasion, as “from rus mafia” Explain yourself, Ted.

Ted, I have the files and data showing all of this. Several governments were given copies months ago. It is not up for debate. Tell the truth.

 

WHITAKER

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

#METOO & WOMEN’S RIGHTS

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

WHITE HOUSE CHAOS

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

STUDENT LOANS

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS & RELIGION

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

CONGRESS

 

ELECTIONS

 

THINKING AHEAD

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

RUMOR MILL

 

That’s it for Friday.  I’m not sure what or when things will break, but expect the Crimes and Lies report to be devastating for several people.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur