Election 2020 Part 5

Election 2020, Part 4 went up a couple days ago, and then it looked like it was all over but the crying.

BIDEN WINS!!!!!!!!!!!   BIDEN WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. will become the 46th President of the United States of America.

Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. will become the 46th President of the United States of America. Senator Kamala Harris of California will become the first female Vice President.

I cried. I’m on the verge of tears right now as I write this, over two hours after the news broke. I’m..happy.

But by no means is the fight done. Not by a long shot. As Jean-Luc Picard said “The price of Liberty is Eternal Vigilance.” We came too close this time to slip into fascism to sit on our laurels.

I will stay in the fight for liberty until my dying days, and I can ensure that my children and their children have taken up the mantle. For now, this weekend is cause for celebration.

Trump has not conceded, nor does anyone expect him to. He’s too much of a chickenshit narcissist to do so. He will call for violence at some point soon. How many take up the call, that’s the question.

There is a lot we have to do moving forward to save this country. But tonight. Just tonight. I’m standing down.

That, and I want to get fucking shitfaced and watch wrestling. This Yinzer deserves a night off. You know, after saving the Republic and all.

Thank you, and have a good one.

Election 2020, Part 4

Hello once again.  It’s Friday, November 6th.  It’s been a couple days since the last post, Election 2020 Part 3.  What’s going on and where do we stand?

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That’s where! Over the last few days, mail-in votes were counted in Pennsylvania. Trump’s lead of nearly two million votes evaporated as the mail-ins were counted. Joe Biden now leads by about 5,500 votes, with about 100,000 left to count. The mail-in vote has been heavily Democratic.

Why?

Remember how Orange Julius spent the last few months claiming that COVID was a hoax and that mail voting was a fraud? Well, the Democrats are the people that listened to scientists, and decided that instead of spending all day standing in line with some mouth breathers who want to bitch about ‘muh freedum’, if they had the option to vote by mail, they did. My wife and I received our ballots in early October, held on to them for about 3 days, then mailed them in. They were received and recorded a few weeks ago, but couldn’t be counted until the polls closed.

Also, see how Georgia is slightly blue? JOE BIDEN IS LEADING IN GEORGIA! It’s a narrow lead, and will almost certainly go to a recount, but Georgia could flip for Joe.

Nevada has about 190,000 ballots left to announce. They are all mail-in ballots, and 90% of them are from Clark County, the home of Las Vegas.

Joe’s lead in Arizona is narrowing, but Trump would have to greatly outperform what he’s been doing to take the state. Even still, if…I’m sorry, WHEN Pennsylvania is called for Biden, it’s all over but the crying.

PA, NV, and GA would give Biden 295 electoral votes, taking Arizona out of the mix. Add it back in, and he hits 306.

Same as Trump in 2016. Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

Now, I’m going to sit back, watch the counts, and see what happens. At this point it’s about padding the lead in PA. Soon it will pass the point where the number of votes left are outweighed by the margin. That might take a few hours. Once that happens, expect the Associated Press to project Joe Biden as the winner and next President of the United States of America.

And expect the biggest temper tantrum in this country’s history as Donald Trump completely loses his shit.

Election 2020 Part 3

I’m back. It was easier to make a new post than it was to edit the one from earlier.

It’s 6:45PM on Wednesday, November 4th. Here’s where we’re at…

In the last few hours, Michigan and Wisconsin were both called for Biden. The margins are greater than what Trump won with back in 2016. Pennsylvania still has about a million votes left to count, mostly from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. We still won’t have a count for them until at least Thursday or Friday. Nevada still has yet to be called, but they are scheduled to announce more results later tonight at 8PM EST/5PM PST. North Carolina and Georgia are still too close to call, with Georgia processing mail-in votes for Atlanta.

The current total is 264-214, based on the projections. Any single win for Biden give him the Presidency.

6:56PM

Nevada just said no news tonight. It’s hard to get numbers nailed down on it, but I’m still hopeful across the board.

Look at it from the GOP perspective. Everything except Nevada is a loss, but Trump could afford to lose 36 EV’s and still win. Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan are 37 votes. Nebraska-2 makes it 38. The only state they had a chance to flip was Nevada, which would give them a buffer of 6 votes, making the count 276-264 if Trump holds everything.

Here’s the rub, though. Remember how Trump went all gung-ho on claiming that mail-in voting was a fraud, was bad, and convinced all of Cult45 to wait until yesterday to vote? Well, the Democrats took advantage of pants-optional voting and sent in millions of ballots. It’s hard to get a specific number, but the mail-in votes across the board leaned heavily towards Biden, like 70-30. That skewed even higher in Democratic areas like major cities. So, for every 10 votes cast, 4 of them either padded Joe’s lead, or chipped away at Trump’s lead. Georgia has Trump leading by 75,000 votes. With a 70-30 split, Biden would need about 200,000 votes from a heavy blue area to take the lead. That’s where we’re at, assuming that’s what is left.

It’s sort of like protecting a lead, except Kyle Shanahan is calling the plays on offense. At this point all Trump can do is whine, bitch, and wait.

I don’t think we’ll get an answer tonight, unless Georgia or North Carolina make large strides tonight. But Trump and the Republicans have just filed another lawsuit in Georgia to force them to stop counting ballots. All they’ve got left are lawsuits at this point.

Trump needs to run the table on Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Hell, Alaska could be up for grabs if we’re looking at it that way. Considering that Nevada just passed a gay marriage amendment to their state constitution via a 61-39 margin, I’m feeling a little more positive every day.

It might be another day or two until we get an answer. The question becomes “are there enough mail-in ballots in the remaining states to give Biden a win any one of them?”

Stay frosty out there.

Election 2020 Part 2

I’m back today,  and feeling… I don’t know.  It’s hard to describe, it’s that feeling you get when not consumed with overwhelming doom and gloom.  Time for an update on what happened since I went to bed last night,  Election Night 2020

The possibility of a “Red Mirage” is looking very real.  Due to Trump’s fuckery on mail-in voting, Republicans overwhelmingly waited until yesterday to vote.  That’s why the early numbers were so damned depressing.  But as the night went on, more and more states caught up on their mail-in vote counts.

Both candidates spoke last night.  Biden was enthusiastic, calling for patience while every vote is counted.  Trump declared himself the winner and demanded that all counting stop, and threatened to unleash the Supreme Court on states if they don’t stop right away.

Fuck you Trump, keep counting.

Overnight, Arizona was called for Biden.  NPR’s map looks like this:

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The solid states have been projected, the lighter ones are leaning one way or another. Biden holds a 238 to 213 lead. Overnight, more votes came in from Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan to push Biden into the lead there. The votes from those three states put him to, well, let’s do the math.

238 + Nevada (6) + Wisconsin (10) + Michigan (16) = 244 + 26 = 270.

Biden would win the election with that, before we get to Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia. But let’s talk about those.

Pennsylvania still has a lot of votes left to count from Pittsburgh and Philly. Somewhere in the neighborhood of over a million votes. Trump currently has a half million vote lead, but that’s before Pittsburgh and Philly. Bill Stepien, Trump’s current campaign manager, expects Biden to take the state by about 50,000.

Georgia still has a bunch of mail-in votes to count from Atlanta. There’s enough outstanding that it could flip Georgia, too.

North Carolina still has votes out in the mail system as well. That could flip things as well.

Also, let’s keep in mind that no state has completely finished, and we saw hundreds of thousands of ballots not being moved through the Post Office in places like Florida and North Carolina.

We won’t have a definitive answer for a few days at least, but the betting lines in Vegas put Biden as a clear favorite.

Today’s hashtag is #FuckYouKeepCounting from Rick Wilson over at the Lincoln Project.

I’ll be back throughout the day.