Election Night 2020

It’s Election Night. November 3rd, 2020. I’m going to update things as I see them and as they happen throughout the night. All times will be Eastern PM, unless otherwise noted.

7:12

The polls have closed in Indiana, most of Georgia, and a few other states. They’re listed over at https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times.

The kids are still running around and I’m about to post an ad that says “Free to a good home” for a dog and two children.

So far Indiana and West Virginia were called by NBC for Trump, while Vermont and Virginia are heading towards Biden.

Fulton County, home of Atlanta GA, suffered a broken pipe where they were counting the mail-in and absentee ballots. Don’t expect vote totals from them tonight.

It is WAAAYYYY too early to read anything into any of the results. I’ll be back in a bit.

7:30

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virgina have closed. Considering that the only part of black people allowed in West Virginia are the lungs of miners, calling it for Trump is the easiest lay-up in politics.

I’m waiting for the little girl to go to bed to turn on coverage in the living room. I normally watch PBS for the election coverage, but I’ve also gone with MSNBC, too. I’ll see what’s going on with the different channels.

I said I would not drink tonight. I don’t plan on drinking tonight. The fact that I have a big bottle of Liberty Creek Sweet Red in my fridge is just a coincidence.

7:59

Getting ready to put the little one to bed, then put on the news. Most of the east coast and several states in the central time zone close then.

The stress is already getting to me. I’m keeping an eye on 538, 270towin, Reddit, and Twitter. I’m more nervous this time than I was in 2016, but then again I’ve spent the last 4 years fighting against Tangerine Tojo.

Potty training a toddler girl is less stressful than election night. By about a 1000%.

8:10

Another reminder that there are a fuckton of mail-in votes and absentee votes that need to be counted. More than 100,000,000 Americans voted early this year. Small counties can report early because they have fewer to count.

It’s gonna be a long night.

8:30

Putting a toddler to bed is a fun battle. Ok, mostly just a battle.

Polls have closed for many states on the east coast and some in the central time zone. Trump is projected to win Florida, but that’s only because of Cubans in Miami.

270towin has the projections currently 90-63 in favor of Trump. This includes a projection for Trump winning Florida.

I’ll be back later on, right after the dog either calms down or gets sent to a farm upstate.

8:50

Time to relax on the couch. Florida is, well, Florida. When the Blue Wave of 2018 came in, that was the only state to not show an increase. NBC is not calling Florida yet, nor many other states.

The dog is going in the crate. He’s a pain in the ass, but he’s our pain in the ass.

9:15

Several more states have closed their polls. I’m watching MSNBC. Biden is performing well in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Pennsylvania is a clusterfuck. Some counties will count their mail-in votes tonight. Some won’t. Some will only announce the in-person only tonight. Don’t expect any news from Pennsylvania for a couple days.

9:30

NBC has called several states. Many of the flyovers for Trump, and Colorado and most of the Northeast for Biden. Nothing too surprising there. 270towin has the race at 120-115 for Trump.

As far as the Senate, things are too early to tell at this point. The Democrats need to flip 4 seats for a 51-49 majority.

I should take a break, but no. That would only make sense.

10:00

More polls are closing across the country. I’m trying to relax by playing Killer Sudoku. It’s a combination of sudoku and kakuro. It’s a nice way to unwind.

10:30

No major changes yet. That was a very long game of sudoku. I’m feeling a little more hopeful. Here’s why:

Arizona is too early to call, but Biden is up by quite a bit so far. Mark Kelly is leading even more in the Senate race. It could take a while for the votes to come in, but the margins are big.

By this time in 2016, HRC was getting beat across the board outside of the west coast and states called for Trump were called quick. Kansas was projected for Trump like 3 minutes after the polls closed. This time it’s almost 3 hours later.

In Ohio, HRC lost by close to 7 points. Biden and Trump are virtually tied. North Carolina is too close to call. Florida is, well, Florida.

To steal a line from MSNBC, “This election will be decided by the Big Ten, not the SEC.”

11:55

I’m exhausted. The anxiety is too much and it’s been a long day. Fuck, it’s been a long 4 years.

So far, nothing has been projected to flip, but everything is much closer than it was in 2016. Georgia won’t have anything counted until tomorrow. North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa are too close to call.

Pennsylvania is still ugly.

Trump needs to almost everything he won last time. In the SEC, he needs to hold Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Texas as well, but I’m not sure if Texas has any schools in the SEC. Then there’s the Big Ten states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Trump has not gained any ground. The only state he might have a chance at flipping is Nevada with 6 Electoral Votes. If Trump flips Nevada, he has a margin of 42 EV’s. Where would Biden have to pick up those 42? Arizona is 11, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10. That’s 37 right there. Pennsylvania is 20, Georgia and North Carolina are at 16 and 15. Ohio is 18.

Sorry, I’m getting off track and need to go to bed soon. But let me get back to my point.

We’re not going to have an answer soon, anywhere across the board. I just hope I don’t wake up to bad news like last time. Then again, it could be a few days.

That’s it for tonight. I’ll post some more tomorrow.