Election Night 2020

It’s Election Night. November 3rd, 2020. I’m going to update things as I see them and as they happen throughout the night. All times will be Eastern PM, unless otherwise noted.

7:12

The polls have closed in Indiana, most of Georgia, and a few other states. They’re listed over at https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times.

The kids are still running around and I’m about to post an ad that says “Free to a good home” for a dog and two children.

So far Indiana and West Virginia were called by NBC for Trump, while Vermont and Virginia are heading towards Biden.

Fulton County, home of Atlanta GA, suffered a broken pipe where they were counting the mail-in and absentee ballots. Don’t expect vote totals from them tonight.

It is WAAAYYYY too early to read anything into any of the results. I’ll be back in a bit.

7:30

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virgina have closed. Considering that the only part of black people allowed in West Virginia are the lungs of miners, calling it for Trump is the easiest lay-up in politics.

I’m waiting for the little girl to go to bed to turn on coverage in the living room. I normally watch PBS for the election coverage, but I’ve also gone with MSNBC, too. I’ll see what’s going on with the different channels.

I said I would not drink tonight. I don’t plan on drinking tonight. The fact that I have a big bottle of Liberty Creek Sweet Red in my fridge is just a coincidence.

7:59

Getting ready to put the little one to bed, then put on the news. Most of the east coast and several states in the central time zone close then.

The stress is already getting to me. I’m keeping an eye on 538, 270towin, Reddit, and Twitter. I’m more nervous this time than I was in 2016, but then again I’ve spent the last 4 years fighting against Tangerine Tojo.

Potty training a toddler girl is less stressful than election night. By about a 1000%.

8:10

Another reminder that there are a fuckton of mail-in votes and absentee votes that need to be counted. More than 100,000,000 Americans voted early this year. Small counties can report early because they have fewer to count.

It’s gonna be a long night.

8:30

Putting a toddler to bed is a fun battle. Ok, mostly just a battle.

Polls have closed for many states on the east coast and some in the central time zone. Trump is projected to win Florida, but that’s only because of Cubans in Miami.

270towin has the projections currently 90-63 in favor of Trump. This includes a projection for Trump winning Florida.

I’ll be back later on, right after the dog either calms down or gets sent to a farm upstate.

8:50

Time to relax on the couch. Florida is, well, Florida. When the Blue Wave of 2018 came in, that was the only state to not show an increase. NBC is not calling Florida yet, nor many other states.

The dog is going in the crate. He’s a pain in the ass, but he’s our pain in the ass.

9:15

Several more states have closed their polls. I’m watching MSNBC. Biden is performing well in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Pennsylvania is a clusterfuck. Some counties will count their mail-in votes tonight. Some won’t. Some will only announce the in-person only tonight. Don’t expect any news from Pennsylvania for a couple days.

9:30

NBC has called several states. Many of the flyovers for Trump, and Colorado and most of the Northeast for Biden. Nothing too surprising there. 270towin has the race at 120-115 for Trump.

As far as the Senate, things are too early to tell at this point. The Democrats need to flip 4 seats for a 51-49 majority.

I should take a break, but no. That would only make sense.

10:00

More polls are closing across the country. I’m trying to relax by playing Killer Sudoku. It’s a combination of sudoku and kakuro. It’s a nice way to unwind.

10:30

No major changes yet. That was a very long game of sudoku. I’m feeling a little more hopeful. Here’s why:

Arizona is too early to call, but Biden is up by quite a bit so far. Mark Kelly is leading even more in the Senate race. It could take a while for the votes to come in, but the margins are big.

By this time in 2016, HRC was getting beat across the board outside of the west coast and states called for Trump were called quick. Kansas was projected for Trump like 3 minutes after the polls closed. This time it’s almost 3 hours later.

In Ohio, HRC lost by close to 7 points. Biden and Trump are virtually tied. North Carolina is too close to call. Florida is, well, Florida.

To steal a line from MSNBC, “This election will be decided by the Big Ten, not the SEC.”

11:55

I’m exhausted. The anxiety is too much and it’s been a long day. Fuck, it’s been a long 4 years.

So far, nothing has been projected to flip, but everything is much closer than it was in 2016. Georgia won’t have anything counted until tomorrow. North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa are too close to call.

Pennsylvania is still ugly.

Trump needs to almost everything he won last time. In the SEC, he needs to hold Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Texas as well, but I’m not sure if Texas has any schools in the SEC. Then there’s the Big Ten states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Trump has not gained any ground. The only state he might have a chance at flipping is Nevada with 6 Electoral Votes. If Trump flips Nevada, he has a margin of 42 EV’s. Where would Biden have to pick up those 42? Arizona is 11, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10. That’s 37 right there. Pennsylvania is 20, Georgia and North Carolina are at 16 and 15. Ohio is 18.

Sorry, I’m getting off track and need to go to bed soon. But let me get back to my point.

We’re not going to have an answer soon, anywhere across the board. I just hope I don’t wake up to bad news like last time. Then again, it could be a few days.

That’s it for tonight. I’ll post some more tomorrow.

Election Eve 2020

Hello everyone.  It’s been a while since I’ve written here.  Hypotheticals came out a month ago back when Tangerine Tojo tested positive for COVID.  What’s happened since then?

  • Polls are leaning heavily towards Biden across the country, and in most of the swing states.  Biden has outperformed HRC everywhere.
  • Nate Silver of 538 puts Trump’s chances of a legitimate victory at 10%.  This time 4 years ago he was at 35%.
  • Notice how I said legitimate victory?  The Republicans have given up trying to fight to win through their normal means of voter suppression and intimidation and now are trying to use the courts to have votes thrown out.
  • The Republicans pushed through a new SCOTUS nominee, giving a middle finger to 2016.
  • Early voting is off the hook this year.  More than 93 million Americans have voted so far, and there’s still a couple days left before the election.  138 million voted in 2016.  The early voting numbers have crushed any previous year.
  • Giuliani tried to kick off an ‘October Surprise’ by going after Hunter Biden in a plot that so badly developed that no one wanted to touch it except the New York Post.  The Post is owned by Rupert Murdoch.  Apparently Fox News had too much integrity for this story.
  • Rudy was also caught by Borat jerking off to a woman pretending to be 15, and Rudy’s source on the Hunter Biden story is a Russian spy.
  •  A group of Cult45’ers tried to drive a Biden bus off the highway in Texas.
  • TEXAS IS A FUCKING SWING STATE NOW!!!

Oh, and there’s a bunch of intimidation, craziness, and assholes running around.  But enough of that.  Let’s talk about what’s been happening, and what I’m planning for the next couple days.

I’d like to write about the election on Tuesday.  I have no clue what will actually happen, but anything short of a blowout in either direction means this will be an ugly couple months.  Like, 2020 fucking sucks but we’re about to get to the shit sundae of the year.

I haven’t let myself feel complacent or happy about the numbers at all this year.  This isn’t going to be over on election night unless we vote in numbers so overwhelming that there is no chance of fuckery.  I have too much PTSD over the last few years to get hopeful or optimistic.

This fight to save democracy doesn’t end tonight, this week, or on January 20, 2021.  The fight for democracy can never end.  We’ve come too close to the brink of losing everything just to give up the fight after one battle.  My fight for a better world ends when I’ve handed it off to my kids and their kids, and they take up the fight.

My fight with Trump and his cronies will end when I’m a grown man and I’m busted for pissing on his grave.  His perp walk will be a poster in my office for years to come.  By then, hopefully we’ll be on to a better world.

As far as his followers go, it’s taken me years to realize it but I think I finally have the best comparison to explain why they act the way they do, and it came from understanding my own upbringing with a narcissistic father.  Cult45 members are the abused children and spouses of the Narcissist.  Specifically, the Golden Children.

Allow me to go on a tangent to explain to normal people what it’s like growing up with a sociopathic narcissist as an authority figure.  Unlike most normal families where love is unconditional and you don’t have to ask if you have any worth beyond what you can immediately provide, living with a narcissist is a constant battle.  It only ends when one of you is in the ground.  Or, in my case an urn in a storage bin.  Children are pitted against each other, and against parents to see who is worthy of the narcissist’s love and adoration today.  The child that gains the love today is the favorite today, while the others are cast aside and scorned.  The child that consistently receives this love is the Golden Child.  They can literally do no wrong in the eyes of the nParent.  Meanwhile, the child that is the constant target of the attacks is the Scapegoat.  Nothing the scapegoat does is ever good enough.  The Scapegoat can get accepted into Harvard University, but if they didn’t get a full-ride they’re a failure.  Of course, the nParent will take all of the credit for ANY successes their kids have.  They will also blame the kids for every mistake and problem they’ve had, too.

Sound familiar?

Cult45 is filled with abused children and spouses.  They will fight and die and scratch and bully and kill, all for a modicum of Daddy’s love, no matter how fleeting it is.  Trump only loves those who love him in the moment, but only when they’re useful.  In the past week, Trump hosted two rallies where people were bused to a remote site but were stranded.  Because the Trump Campaign didn’t pay the bus companies, and they don’t work for free, people in Omaha, NE and Butler, PA had to walk home. Butler wasn’t too bad since it was on a warm Halloween night (warm by PA standards), but Omaha was in the middle of a rainy snowstorm.  At least 30 people were hospitalized.

In classic abused child mentality, the Cult45 members blamed the sick and the weak for not being prepared for being stranded for hours in the cold during a blizzard.  This is standard behavior for children dealing with an abusive parent.  The constant abuse means that you can’t depend on anyone but yourself, since you don’t know who will play what role tomorrow.

Knowing how to react is one thing.  Taking the effort to do so is a different story.

I’m tired.  Really tired.  So sick and tired of fighting and battling for so long.  I’ve seen people I once considered friends show me their true colors, and I don’t know if I want them in my lives going forward.  Fortunately most of them are far enough removed that I don’t have to interact with them daily, but 2020 has shown me I have a finite amount of energy to put up with other people’s bullshit.  But I’ve also grown closer to others.

Something that I will have a hard time with after this election is looking at people the same way again.  There are too many that turned a blind eye to the rise of fascism in this country.  Hell, they outright supported it.  A lot of changes will need to be made to save this country going forward.  But I’ll talk about those changes at a later date.

Right now, I’m going to spend the next couple days in a nervous panic, being completely inundated with political ads because I live in a swing state.  One reason I’m a major proponent of the Presidential Popular Vote initiative is that I shouldn’t be the only one suffering from constant political ads simply because Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philly with Kentucky in the middle.

I’ll see everyone Tuesday Night.  I hope.  I have no plans to drink this year.  I want to remember this.

Thank you and have a good one.