I’m back. It was easier to make a new post than it was to edit the one from earlier.
It’s 6:45PM on Wednesday, November 4th. Here’s where we’re at…
In the last few hours, Michigan and Wisconsin were both called for Biden. The margins are greater than what Trump won with back in 2016. Pennsylvania still has about a million votes left to count, mostly from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. We still won’t have a count for them until at least Thursday or Friday. Nevada still has yet to be called, but they are scheduled to announce more results later tonight at 8PM EST/5PM PST. North Carolina and Georgia are still too close to call, with Georgia processing mail-in votes for Atlanta.
The current total is 264-214, based on the projections. Any single win for Biden give him the Presidency.
Nevada just said no news tonight. It’s hard to get numbers nailed down on it, but I’m still hopeful across the board.
Look at it from the GOP perspective. Everything except Nevada is a loss, but Trump could afford to lose 36 EV’s and still win. Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan are 37 votes. Nebraska-2 makes it 38. The only state they had a chance to flip was Nevada, which would give them a buffer of 6 votes, making the count 276-264 if Trump holds everything.
Here’s the rub, though. Remember how Trump went all gung-ho on claiming that mail-in voting was a fraud, was bad, and convinced all of Cult45 to wait until yesterday to vote? Well, the Democrats took advantage of pants-optional voting and sent in millions of ballots. It’s hard to get a specific number, but the mail-in votes across the board leaned heavily towards Biden, like 70-30. That skewed even higher in Democratic areas like major cities. So, for every 10 votes cast, 4 of them either padded Joe’s lead, or chipped away at Trump’s lead. Georgia has Trump leading by 75,000 votes. With a 70-30 split, Biden would need about 200,000 votes from a heavy blue area to take the lead. That’s where we’re at, assuming that’s what is left.
It’s sort of like protecting a lead, except Kyle Shanahan is calling the plays on offense. At this point all Trump can do is whine, bitch, and wait.
I don’t think we’ll get an answer tonight, unless Georgia or North Carolina make large strides tonight. But Trump and the Republicans have just filed another lawsuit in Georgia to force them to stop counting ballots. All they’ve got left are lawsuits at this point.
Trump needs to run the table on Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Hell, Alaska could be up for grabs if we’re looking at it that way. Considering that Nevada just passed a gay marriage amendment to their state constitution via a 61-39 margin, I’m feeling a little more positive every day.
It might be another day or two until we get an answer. The question becomes “are there enough mail-in ballots in the remaining states to give Biden a win any one of them?”
Stay frosty out there.