Election Night 2020

It’s Election Night. November 3rd, 2020. I’m going to update things as I see them and as they happen throughout the night. All times will be Eastern PM, unless otherwise noted.

7:12

The polls have closed in Indiana, most of Georgia, and a few other states. They’re listed over at https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times.

The kids are still running around and I’m about to post an ad that says “Free to a good home” for a dog and two children.

So far Indiana and West Virginia were called by NBC for Trump, while Vermont and Virginia are heading towards Biden.

Fulton County, home of Atlanta GA, suffered a broken pipe where they were counting the mail-in and absentee ballots. Don’t expect vote totals from them tonight.

It is WAAAYYYY too early to read anything into any of the results. I’ll be back in a bit.

7:30

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virgina have closed. Considering that the only part of black people allowed in West Virginia are the lungs of miners, calling it for Trump is the easiest lay-up in politics.

I’m waiting for the little girl to go to bed to turn on coverage in the living room. I normally watch PBS for the election coverage, but I’ve also gone with MSNBC, too. I’ll see what’s going on with the different channels.

I said I would not drink tonight. I don’t plan on drinking tonight. The fact that I have a big bottle of Liberty Creek Sweet Red in my fridge is just a coincidence.

7:59

Getting ready to put the little one to bed, then put on the news. Most of the east coast and several states in the central time zone close then.

The stress is already getting to me. I’m keeping an eye on 538, 270towin, Reddit, and Twitter. I’m more nervous this time than I was in 2016, but then again I’ve spent the last 4 years fighting against Tangerine Tojo.

Potty training a toddler girl is less stressful than election night. By about a 1000%.

8:10

Another reminder that there are a fuckton of mail-in votes and absentee votes that need to be counted. More than 100,000,000 Americans voted early this year. Small counties can report early because they have fewer to count.

It’s gonna be a long night.

8:30

Putting a toddler to bed is a fun battle. Ok, mostly just a battle.

Polls have closed for many states on the east coast and some in the central time zone. Trump is projected to win Florida, but that’s only because of Cubans in Miami.

270towin has the projections currently 90-63 in favor of Trump. This includes a projection for Trump winning Florida.

I’ll be back later on, right after the dog either calms down or gets sent to a farm upstate.

8:50

Time to relax on the couch. Florida is, well, Florida. When the Blue Wave of 2018 came in, that was the only state to not show an increase. NBC is not calling Florida yet, nor many other states.

The dog is going in the crate. He’s a pain in the ass, but he’s our pain in the ass.

9:15

Several more states have closed their polls. I’m watching MSNBC. Biden is performing well in North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Pennsylvania is a clusterfuck. Some counties will count their mail-in votes tonight. Some won’t. Some will only announce the in-person only tonight. Don’t expect any news from Pennsylvania for a couple days.

9:30

NBC has called several states. Many of the flyovers for Trump, and Colorado and most of the Northeast for Biden. Nothing too surprising there. 270towin has the race at 120-115 for Trump.

As far as the Senate, things are too early to tell at this point. The Democrats need to flip 4 seats for a 51-49 majority.

I should take a break, but no. That would only make sense.

10:00

More polls are closing across the country. I’m trying to relax by playing Killer Sudoku. It’s a combination of sudoku and kakuro. It’s a nice way to unwind.

10:30

No major changes yet. That was a very long game of sudoku. I’m feeling a little more hopeful. Here’s why:

Arizona is too early to call, but Biden is up by quite a bit so far. Mark Kelly is leading even more in the Senate race. It could take a while for the votes to come in, but the margins are big.

By this time in 2016, HRC was getting beat across the board outside of the west coast and states called for Trump were called quick. Kansas was projected for Trump like 3 minutes after the polls closed. This time it’s almost 3 hours later.

In Ohio, HRC lost by close to 7 points. Biden and Trump are virtually tied. North Carolina is too close to call. Florida is, well, Florida.

To steal a line from MSNBC, “This election will be decided by the Big Ten, not the SEC.”

11:55

I’m exhausted. The anxiety is too much and it’s been a long day. Fuck, it’s been a long 4 years.

So far, nothing has been projected to flip, but everything is much closer than it was in 2016. Georgia won’t have anything counted until tomorrow. North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa are too close to call.

Pennsylvania is still ugly.

Trump needs to almost everything he won last time. In the SEC, he needs to hold Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Texas as well, but I’m not sure if Texas has any schools in the SEC. Then there’s the Big Ten states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Trump has not gained any ground. The only state he might have a chance at flipping is Nevada with 6 Electoral Votes. If Trump flips Nevada, he has a margin of 42 EV’s. Where would Biden have to pick up those 42? Arizona is 11, Michigan 16, Wisconsin 10. That’s 37 right there. Pennsylvania is 20, Georgia and North Carolina are at 16 and 15. Ohio is 18.

Sorry, I’m getting off track and need to go to bed soon. But let me get back to my point.

We’re not going to have an answer soon, anywhere across the board. I just hope I don’t wake up to bad news like last time. Then again, it could be a few days.

That’s it for tonight. I’ll post some more tomorrow.

Hypotheticals

Good evening everyone. It is Friday, October 2nd, 2020. It’s been a few months since I’ve written a post. I’m sorry, life has been almost as crazy as 2020. A ton of things have happened since June and my last post about police brutality.

  • WordPress changed their editing tool and I’m completely lost right now, but as soon as I figure things out, this site should look good-ish.
  • Protests continued throughout the summer. Breona Taylor, George Floyd, Jacob Blake, and others still have not received justice.
  • COVID-19 is still a thing in the U.S., no matter how much people want to imagine it didn’t happen.
  • My 1B choice, Senator Kamala Harris, was chosen as Joe Biden’s Vice Presidential nominee. She is the first black woman and first Asian woman to be nominated by a major party for either POTUS or VP. Her mom is from India.
  • The New York Times got their hands on Trump’s taxes. He’s an even bigger liar, thief, and tax cheat than I’ve reported, and I reported that he was a massive crook and truly incompetent businessman. In the last 15 years, he paid zero income taxes 10 times. In two of those years, 2016 and 2017, he paid $750. A barista at Starbucks pays more than he does.
  • We had the first Presidential Debate a few nights ago. I’d describe it somewhere between a shitshow and a clusterfuck. Trump screamed over Joe, interrupting him 128 times in 98 minutes. It was ugly. He went full bully mode, but Joe didn’t give in. Personally, I’d have beaten the mother fucker with his own microphone. This shows that Joe is better at handling his stress than I am.
  • Jacob Wohl was charged with several felonies in Michigan for racist robocalls.
  • Speaking of racism, Trump refused to renounce white supremacists during the debate and told the Proud Boys to “Stand Back and Stand By.”
  • Trump also said he would refuse to accept the results of the election if he didn’t win. He is such a narcissist that he cannot comprehend that millions of people hate him.
  • Early voting has begun across the country. My wife and I received our ballots this week, and I will be handing them in next week.
  • Tangerine Tojo has COVID.

Wait, what?

Yeah, so earlier this week Hope Hicks, Trump’s whatever-the-fuck-she-does-now-to-stay-around White House aide tested positive for COVID-19. By Wednesday they knew she was symptomatic. She traveled with Trump to a fundraiser on Thursday. By Thursday night, Trump had tested positive. It was announced early on Friday. By Friday evening, he was flown to Walter Reed Medical Hospital and had received an experimental treatment called REGN-COV2. It’s an antibiotic treatment meant to help the passive immune system and is still in the late stages of testing. The White House announced that Trump would spend the next few days at Walter Reed Hospital.

There’s a whole bunch of weird shit with that mess that steps into CrazayShitLand, but I’m not going there today. Instead, I’m getting off the highway at the Hypothetical City exit and I’m going to answer a few questions that I know some people have right now.

Is Trump still the President?

As of the writing of this post, unfortunately yes. They have not enacted the 25th Amendment yet. I’ll cover that in a moment.

Do you feel bad about him being sick?

Fuck him. I might feel bad for him if he had the slightest bit of empathy or humanity to begin with. Instead, more than 200,000 Americans are dead and he doesn’t give a shit.

Is it serious?

It’s serious enough that a malignant narcissist who sees illness as weakness has been checked in to one of the premier hospitals in the world for an extended stay. It’s like a drunk going to rehab.

Could he die?

Everyone dies, it’s just a matter of how and when.

Stop being philosophical you prick, I mean could he die in the hospital from COVID in the foreseeable future?

Yes. Depending on how bad things progress. The odds are still on his side, but he’s a 74 year old morbidly obese sloth who doesn’t even know what vegetables look like.

Is he genuinely sick?

According to reports, yes.

How do narcissists handle sickness?

Two ways. They start with complete tough guy routines, trying to ‘ride it out’, but once they get the sniffles they go all ‘woe is me’ and demand all of the attention. Considering he walked to Marine 1 under his own power and wasn’t hacking up a lung while doing so, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the Crying-For-Mommy phase of screaming for attention but in reality he’s decently fine.

What if you’re wrong?

I’ve been wrong before. Many, many times. I wouldn’t have stayed married as long as I have if I wasn’t able to admit being wrong. If I am wrong and Trump is terribly ill and not just throwing a temper tantrum demanding the best treatment possible, I will gladly feel bad for a moment before celebrating his death.

Could this be some elaborate hoax to fake his own death, get out of office, or go into hiding?

Look, I don’t put anything past these fuckers, and a big part of me won’t be convinced he’s dead until I am arrested for pissing on his grave. That said, he’s in so much deep shit that the only way he doesn’t die in prison (or at least house arrest) is by staying in power. I put the chances of that happening as very low?

If he does die, what happens?

Depends on the timing. If it’s after the election and he loses, I’ll party hard that night like I did when Ronald Reagan died. If it’s it’s after and he wins or steals a win, I’ll drink in depression that night because we’ll have to deal with Mike Pence for 4 years at least. If it’s before the election, well, that’s a good question.

Care to elaborate, windbag?

Sure. If Trump dies or is permanently incapacitated before the election, not much changes. Mike Pence gets sworn in as President, and my original prediction of Trump not finishing his term is proven right. As far as the election goes, Pence is on the Trump/Pence ticket and voting has already started. People vote for the ticket of the party, not the individual. So if Trump died then President Pence would run in Trump’s place.

President Pence? Sounds like a bad dream.

Yes. Yes it is.

How long could he serve?

If Trump dies and Pence is sworn in, due to the 22nd Amendment Pence could serve two full terms if he wins election. The last 2-3 months of Trump’s term is less than half of a term, so he would not be limited that way.

What about Biden?

Well, his camp said he tested negative, so there’s that.

What if Biden dies?

Similar thing, but it gets a little more complicated. Since he’s the challenger and people have already started voting, Kamala Harris would step up as the nominee for President. The Democratic Party may elect to nominate a new nominee, but we’re so close that the only option would be Senator Harris. She would select a Vice President who would be most likely given a quick vote of confidence from the party. If it happens after the election but before the Electoral College, the electors would likely vote for Kamala directly and if she had chosen a VP, they might vote for them. If it happened after the Electoral College vote but before Inauguration, the Vice President-Elect would become the President-Elect. They would nominate a name to the Congress to have them vote on to become the new Vice President.

Congress would choose the Vice President.

Sort of. Per the 25th Amendment, the President has the ability to nominate a person to serve as Vice President in the case of a vacancy. They would face a vote in both houses of Congress, and if approved they would become the Vice President. The last time this happened was in 1974 after Richard Nixon resigned. Gerald Ford, who he himself went through this process when Spiro Agnew resigned to avoid jail time for bribery, nominated Nelson Rockefeller as his VP.

Given how crazy and bipartisan things are, could both houses agree on a VP choice?

Definitely. Remember the Order of Succession. It goes POTUS, VP, Speaker of the House, President Pro Tempre of the Senate, then the Cabinet from Secretary of State down by oldest position to members of the House and Senate in order of seniority. If Trump dies before the end of his term, then Nancy Pelosi is second in line. Mitch McConnell definitely doesn’t want to take the chance of a President Pelosi.

How does the 25th Amendment work again?

Short version, it describes how holes are filled in the line of succession, and how to handle times when the POTUS is incapacitated. It gives the POTUS power to appoint a new VP, outlines how the VP ascends to POTUS, and how to handle things when the President is not able to execute the powers of the office. If the President goes under for some reason, he can send a letter to the President Pro Tempre of the Senate saying “Yo, I’m out, call the next guy.” Once he’s able to send a letter saying he’s up and running, he’s the President again. It also give the Cabinet or a panel chosen by Congress to say that if they feel that the POTUS is unable to execute the office, then the VP becomes the Acting President until the President is up and running again. This happened after Reagan was shot in the head in 1981.

When is the last time this happened?

Not sure, but I know for a fact that Dick Cheney was Acting President for a few hours while Bush 43 was getting some surgery done on his ass. All he did as Acting President was write a letter to his granddaughter, just to prove that he was there.

What’s the Worst Case Scenario?

Trump’s sickness turns him into a martyr and people rally around him and Pence. They win the election because of it and Democracy ends.

It’s Been A Long Time

Wednesday, December 18th 2019.

 

I haven’t posted anything since August 2019 Update, so it might look like I’ve disappeared, but I’m still here.  I’m still in the fight, but life has been crazy.

Over the last few months, my wife has continued to recover from her injuries.  She’s getting better, but still has a long way to go.  A broken knee doesn’t heal overnight.  Also, the narcissistic sperm donor’s health has continued to spiral downhill.  He’s currently in hospice with a prognosis of weeks.  On top of that, we’ve been fighting the flu/bronchitis/pneumonia since Thanksgiving.

If we weren’t crazy enough with all of that, we’re looking at building a house.  Something one notices real quick when recovering from knee surgery is how much steps suck.  After some back and forth about buying a new house or building, we decided to build.  If anyone reading this ever thinks “hey, that’s a good idea”, run full speed into a wall until the idea disappears in a concussive haze.

I won’t be returning with Daily Check-In posts for a while, but I’m back today for a special reason.  Today, the House of Representatives vote on two Articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump.  Yeah, a lot has happened in the last few months, and I’m waaayyyy behind, but here’s the short, short version: back in the summer, Trump extorted the new Ukrainian President into announcing that they were investigating Joe Biden’s son and withheld approved military aid until he did so.  After several weeks, the news of what happened leaked, and that led to an Impeachment inquiry where Trump’s White House obstructed Congress by preventing several witnesses from testifying, withholding documents, classifying transcripts, and going out of his way to attack Congress.  There’s probably a hundred crimes that they could have finalized, but the Judiciary Committee recommended two Articles.  Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress.  You can read the full articles here.

I hope to have another post later today going over the basics of the Ukraine Extortion.  I also need to catch up on most of what happened in the last few months.  People are in jail, out of jail, back in jail, dead, disappeared, turned into newts, and deported.  It’ll be a while before I’m back to daily posting, and the delay gives me time to look into what and how to cover.  Also, my writing is rusty.

 

Hope to be back later.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

August 2019 Update

It’s time for a quick update.  I missed all of July, and it looks like it will be later in August that I’ll be back to posting on a regular schedule.

As I mentioned in my last post, June Announcement, my wife suffered multiple compound fractures.  Since that post, she spent a couple weeks in the hospital, a few more in rehab, and has been home for the last two weeks.  We’re still trying to get into a nice routine, but hopefully by the end of the month, she’ll be less cripply and more semi-functional.

What I’d like to do when I get back is host a Summer Recap post or series, I’m not sure which yet.  It’ll cover the bigger events of the season, like Jeffrey Epstein getting arrested for trafficking minors for sex and Robert Mueller testifying before Congress.

I miss writing every day, and I hate not being knee deep in the fight right now.  As soon as the wife is cleared for a return to normalcy, I’m back telling everyone how None Of This Is Normal.