Daily Check-In 11/06/2018

Tuesday, November 6, 2018.  Election Day.

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Dmitry Rybolovlev

 

Dmitry Rybolovlev got busted by Monaco.  This is huge.  Remember the $95 million mansion sale that Donald Trump made at the height of the housing crash?  The sale that was for more than twice the price he paid for it a couple years earlier with no improvements to the property? (Daily Check-In 01/12/2018). Well, Trump made that sale, and a bunch more in condos to Dmitry.  He’s also been involved in some questionable art sales with MBS as well.

In other words, a lot of Money Laundering.

And this has been on the Special Counselor’s radar for a while.

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

 

SCOTUS 

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

IMMIGRATION

I know it’s a cold day in Hell when I link to that site, but this article is not crazy, not conspiratorial, and is pretty well reasoned.

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

RUMOR MILL

Today we restore the Republic. And come what may, we will never surrender it.

The Republic is not restored because of this election, nor by Muller, nor a wave of any color. It is restored because of this wave of passion and determination to claim this democracy from the clutches of the powerful, cynical, and malevolent.

We reclaim this Republic because the truth is self-evident: America belongs to its people, endowed with unalienable rights to seek happiness and prosperity free from the rule of tyrants. Self-evident in. 1776. Self-evident in 2018. Self-evident forever.

American patriots will not be ruled by would-be aristocrats, nor criminal gangs, nor foreign despots. This Republic belongs to its free citizens who shall rule themselves, with justice for all.

We will never, ever surrender this Republic. Today, we only begin to reclaim it. </>

 

 

 

That’s it for today.  This post will be a little different.  Aside from a few comments above, the Coda will be more of a live blog tonight until I post.  Yes, I just found out that this last paragraph is called a Coda.  Don’t I sound all SMRT.

7:38- Polls have closed in a couple states, but not in Pennsylvania.  I’m trying to get my notes organized from the day.  I am a giant ball of anxiety right now.  I’m making typos, I was stress eating a little, and I’m jittery.  Normally, I’m not this jittery until after my 7th cup of coffee.  I might have a problem.

Why am I so stressed out? HELLO, been paying attention for the last couple years?  I’m freaking out.  2016 taught me not to relax until the votes are counted, and even then, don’t relax.

7:53- Polls have closed in Georgia, Kentucky, Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina.  NBC is calling the first flip to the Democrats of the night from incumbent Barbara Comstock.  Let’s see how things go.

8:08- I’m finishing up organizing the notes for the day.  Polls have closed in Pennsylvania and several other states.  I’m waiting until after the first segment of SmackDown is over before flipping over to MSNBC for a while.  I need to relax a little bit.

8:43- I finished organizing the page.  There’s an interesting breakthrough with Dmitry Ryobovlev getting busted.  I talked about it in The Russian Investigation.

8:46- Steve Kornacki on MSNBC knows his shit, but he’s very loud.  Like walking on squeaky floors with a newborn loud.

8:56- That’s it, I’m leaving 538 alone.  Nate Silver’s model is drunk.

9:20- I’m done with updating the article and the news.  I need to remind myself that it’s still VERY early, and anything short of blowouts won’t be called for a while.  Reading the Reddit Megathread is like giving my eyes cancer.  The number of trolls and bots in there is nuts.  When your environment makes Twitter look like a well-maintained and cultured community, you need to fix some shit.

9:37- As nice as it would have been to take the Senate, that was a long shot.  Reason for that was some ugly math.  Every 2 years, one third of the Senate is up for reelection.  The third that was up this year was mostly Democrats, and many of them were in red states.  They would have needed to keep all of their old seats, plus win almost every Republican seat.  They’ll lose ground, but as long as they still have at least 40 seats for cloture votes, there’s at least that.

10:19- More polls have closed. NBC has called the Texas Senate race for Ted Cruz. But they’re calling the House for the Democrats.  I’m still looking for more confirmation, but it could actually be happening.  I’m not getting excited until California.  I want to see Rohrabacher and Nunes humiliated.

10:55- There will be victories and losses.  This is one battle in the fight to restore democracy in this country.  A good story while waiting for California to close their polls; Kim Davis, the county clerk who refused to sign marriage licenses for gay couples lost her reelection bid in Kentucky.

11:23- I’m going to wrap things up for the night soon.  I need to get up in the morning, but one thing that was just mentioned is that for the first time ever, there are at least 100 women in the House.  Oh, Fuck you Kris Kobach!!!!!!!!!!!  You lost, Mother Fucker!

That’s it for tonight.  Me thinks things will get nuts over the next few weeks, so I’m going to get a few hours of sleep while I can.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 11/05/2018

Monday, November 5th, and the weekend.

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

 

SCOTUS & #METOO

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

One justification the press should use in covering what Trump does and says a lot less is that he doesn’t actually spend much time Presidenting.

Why cover a crazy old man’s Fox-watching habit? Would you do it if he were your senile dad?

But if you’re going to cover Mr. Trump’s carnival barkering, it should be clearly labeled as such: “While Trump was neglecting Puerto Rico after Maria, he spent 3 hours on Twitter creating this faux scandal and watched 4 straight hours of Fox and Friends”

Then talk about what the people who are doing the job of the President are doing. “While Mr. Trump watched his third hour of Fox, John Bolton was dismantling the global legal order based on his own authority, and Stephen Miller was kidnapping brown children.”

Enough indictments to field a football team?  According to my running list on The Indicted, there 42 people and companies that have been indicted so far.  5 of them have not been indicted by Mueller’s team, and 3 of them are companies.  Even still, that gives us 34 people that have been charged with crimes by the Special Counselor’s Office.  That’s more than an average High School Varsity Football team in a decent sized school district.  Considering that 11 players are on the field at a time, we could realistically meet that statement with 17 or 18 indictments.  But 34-42 puts us in a small college team, almost at an NFL sized active roster.  An NFL team dresses 46 players for a game, with 7 more listed at inactive.  We’re only 4 indictments away from determining who’s riding the pine.  That means sitting on the bench.

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

RUMOR MILL

 

That’s it for the last few days.  And tomorrow’s the big day.  Whatever happens, it’ll resonate for a long time.  Either we’ll see the most corrupt politician in American history get a free pass from his party to trash this country, or the people send a message that this is a nation of laws.

Right now, it feels like things are paused as everyone holds their breath, waiting to see what happens.  There are lots of rumors from both sides that things will get crazy starting Wednesday, but I’m not so certain about that.

Here’s why.  The House and Senate aren’t in session every day until next year, working weekends and burning the candle at both ends.  They’re scheduled for 19 more working days this session.  19.  They work 4 days next week, the last week of November, and the first two weeks of December.  A lot of that time is going to be spent organizing for the next session, selecting the new leadership bodies, and passing some last minute resolutions and appointments.  This type of session is called a Lame Duck Session.  Traditionally, nothing gets done.  Imagine the mentality of a workplace where 1/3rd of the staff has either put in their notice or will be fired at the end of the month.  Now, combine that don’t-give-a-fuck attitude with the replacements coming in, acting like they’ll make a difference, and you’ve got nothing getting done.

This is why I’m hesitant to buy in to the rumors surrounding Jeff Sessions or Rod Rosenstein getting fired or resigning.  If one or both of them get fired, who’s going to replace them?  Even if they were fired on Wednesday and a replacement nominated the same day, there is no guarantee that the Senate would be able to clear their calendar to make room for this appointment.  Unless the Republicans hold on to the Senate, firing is a dangerous option as there’s once again no guarantee that they’d be able to get anything other than a known quantity through the Senate in a hurry.

As far as Mueller dropping some bombshells this week, that once again depends on timing and the election results.  I’ve never gotten the sense that partisan politics plays into this, but if Mueller releases dangerous information against Trump and Pence that implicates them directly in crimes against the United States, I can see the craziest scenario taking place where, in an effort to keep the White House under Republican control until 2020, they fast track an Impeachment against Trump and Pence, get Pence to resign, vote in the Senate to remove Trump from office, and following the chain of succession, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan gets sworn in as President to finish out the term.  The odd of that happening are pretty damn low.  More likely would be Pence resigns, Trump appoints a safe choice as VP like Marco Rubio or John Kasich, then gets voted out in the next session.  Still highly unlikely, but I like to spitball these things.

Things will get crazy later this week.  Wednesday morning will be spent doing a Postmortem by one party and a celebration by the other.  But we’ve got at least a day before that happens.

Go out and Vote.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

 

 

Daily Check-In 11/02/2018

Friday, November 2, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

SCOTUS 

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

It is not written in stone that the United States of America must always exist. It is not guaranteed that the country that goes by that name will always be a democracy. You cannot assume the greatness or strength or stature we have grown accustomed to will always endure.

Throughout our history we have been reminded of the fragility of the American idea and of the country it inspired. We got off to a fitful start with an ill-conceived system. We have seen civil war and foreign despots committed to wiping us off the map.

We have been compromised to the point of negating the good that has gone into our heritage by slavery, genocide, corruption, suppression of the basic rights of women, racism and greed that has literally divided the country into one in which the 99% largely work to enrich the 1%.

At each of those junctures, we have reached deep into the character of the nation and found the fortitude and judgment to correct our course or repulse our enemies. But that should not provide too much comfort. We only have to fail to do so once for the entire experiment to end.

We are at another such juncture where the risk to the idea of America so many of us grew up with is so great that we can see if vanishing before our eyes. I’m not talking about some impossible idea of some flawless nation.

Realistic Americans understand that there are always flaws that must be attended to, that our greatness is not rooted in perfection but in our ability to work, to struggle to perfect ourselves, to correct our errors, to get better. That’s what great countries do.

Their greatness is both in their resilience and in their willingness to reassess and to struggle to get ever greater. But now, we find ourselves at a moment when there are those in high positions of power who would defeat our best impulses and serve ideas that will destroy us.

Donald Trump, as evidenced by his appalling behavior in the final weeks of this campaign, his lies, his fear-mongering, his racism, his narcissism, his defense of murderous foreign despots, his minimizing of acts of domestic terror, his doubling down on his own worst acts…

has presented himself with each passing day as not just a failing president or a profoundly damaged person, but as a threat to the very idea of the country he was elected by a minority to run. He was compromised from the start. Not just by his ties to foreign enemies…

…but by his record as a con-artist and a champion of bad ideas. But he was empowered and joined in his endeavor by a Republican Party that accepted his defects as their own, that would do literally anything to achieve a narrow agenda benefiting a few special interests.

There was not one square inch of the foundations of this country that they would not rent out or sell off or tear apart if it might serve the richest Americans or big companies or the NRA or a handful of evangelicals and their misogynistic agenda.

And so we come to one of those turning points as we did during the civil war or the World Wars or the McCarthy era or the era of Jim Crow or the Cold War when we are being tested. What is at stake is not just how we are perceived as a country, or who we are…

…but whether America as we know it can continue to exist. Don’t take everything you have grown used to for granted. Don’t take democracy in this country for granted. Don’t take progress for granted. Don’t assume our institutions will work to serve us.

All of that is open to question because of this depraved and dangerous president and the craven cabal around him. Who can save us? Only we can. How? Only at the voting booth. The time has come to make a stand against these bastards, this enemy army within.

Vote next Tuesday. Make sure your friends vote. Make sure your family votes. Help the elderly to vote. Canvas your neighbors. Drive people to the polls. This is the greatest test America has faced since the end of the Cold War.

Vote. Vote. Vote like the very idea of America depended upon it.

 

 

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

WHITE HOUSE CHAOS

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS & RELIGION

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

Early voting numbers compared to 4 years ago.

IMG_7682

Early turnout is much higher than previous years.  But how did the turnouts look in those states in 2014?  Let’s find out.

According to this site by Elections Project, here’s the voter turnout for 2014.  All but Texas are the total number of ballots submitted.  Texas didn’t have that number available, so I had to use the number of ballots cast for the highest office in the state.

  • Arizona – 1,537,671
  • Florida – 6,026,802
  • Georgia – 2,596,947
  • Indiana – 1,387,622
  • Montana – 373,831
  • Nevada – 552,546
  • Tennessee – 1,430,117
  • Texas – 4,727,208

Wow.  So far, more people have voted early this year in Texas this year than in all of 2014.  Nevada and Tennessee have almost surpassed those numbers.  Arizona is over 80 percent of the way there.  The only state listed from that list that hasn’t eclipsed the halfway point of the 2014 total turnout is Indiana, and they’ve tripled their early turnout from 4 years ago.

I don’t like to make predictions on results or turnout, but this is promising.

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

You know something that pisses me off…

The same mother fuckers that scream “fuck your feelings” or call me a snowflake for asking them to not be racist, sexist shitheads freak the fuck out because there isn’t enough of their religion on a coffee cup.  They’ll lose their shit because how dare they have to acknowledge that people with other beliefs exist.

To the people who don’t think there’s enough Jesus on their coffee cups, I’d like to sincerely wish them “Happy Holidays.”

 

RUMOR MILL

*Dispatches from Operation Faithful Patriot* [Day 1] “Dearest mother, I have arrived at the border. Solitude and dirt surround us. The men are in high spirits. We have been told our deployment will be short. I dug a trench today. I saw a lizard. Will write again soon.”

[Day 9] “Dearest mother, It’s been over a week. We haven’t seen a single migrant. We set up C-wire. I dug a second trench behind the first trench in case we get overrun. It’s lonely here. My battle buddy keeping singing ‘All my exes live in Texas’ over and over. I miss home.”

[Day 16] “Dearest mother, I think it’s been two weeks. It’s hard to tell. Time has no meaning here on the border. I’ve dug three more trenches. I’ve started pooping in the first one bc I forgot where the porta John is. I killed a gopher. My first kill. Felt good. Send smokes.”

[Day 31] “Dearest mother, Haven’t seen the caravan yet. We expect it any day now. The officers say they’re almost upon us. I’ve dug 14 trenches. The first three have poop in them. The fourth one is filled with Burger King wrappers. I hope this ends soon. The men are restless.”

[Day 50] “Mom, I can’t take this much longer. We’ve dug so many trenches they’ve come up to the Wal-Mart parking lot. I’m sorry I missed Thanksgiving, but you know how important this mission is. Can you buy me new pants? I’ve gained 20 pounds from eating so much BK.”

[Day 63] “Ma, We had our first deserter a few days ago. Doug ran off last week. We found him in the garden section of Wal-Mart the next day. He was eating the perennial bulbs. I won’t lie to you, morale is low. On the bright side, we filled in 5 trenches and re-dug them.”

[Day 89] “Mommy, I wanna come home. It’s hell out here. The Wi-Fi shut off. The Burger King ran out of chicken fries and I can no longer fit in my uniform. I’m wearing a bathrobe I bought at the Bed Bath & Beyond down the street. I don’t know why we’re here anymore.”

[Day 125] “Mem, I kant due this no mor. I stare @ dirt all day wating fur a dangerus cavaran to appoch. My e tool broke and I kant dig mor trenchs. I pooped in my helmet today. Are they saying we’ll be comin home soon? Nobode tells me anething. I hate Texes.”

[Day 199] “…poop. poop. poopie. doop. doop. doopie. i ate a cactus.”

[Day 365] “🦐🥔🎳🖼🔬

 

 

That’s it for today.  Yes, I said today.  I finally got an article posted on the day it’s supposed to be due.

This weekend I’m writing an article about voting, and saying how I think people should vote.  I’ve never been comfortable with telling people what to think, but with how to think.  Those are two vastly different ideas.

Telling someone what to think is not the same as telling them or teaching them HOW to think.  Telling someone what to think takes away their ability to make decisions in the future.  Sure, it’s easy to let someone else make the decisions, but that’s a violation of the basic tenets of critical thinking and logic.  It’s also how we ended up in this mess in the first place.

Teaching someone how to think is far more important.  Giving a person the tools and abilities to spot bullshit, to avoid bullshit, and to fight against bullshit has a far greater payoff.  That’s part of what I do here.  I’d like to think that I’m not telling people what to think, but giving them the information and tools to reach their own conclusions.  I don’t make a claim unless I have evidence to back it up, and even those claims I hedge.

Yes, even when I call Trump a traitor to the United States, I’m pulling my punches, and only making claims that I can back up with evidence.

But this piece this weekend will be a little different.  I’m due for something a little different.  And a glass or 3 of wine.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 11/01/2018

Thursday, November 1, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

#METOO

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

WHITE HOUSE CHAOS

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

 

RUMOR MILL

 

That’s it for Thursday.  It’s a little light today on the non-election news, and it’ll be that way until next Wednesday.  Pretty much everything from here on out should be about the election.

That being said, don’t be surprised if some crazy shit comes out about Russian shit, or some other cray cray.

Remember, go out there and vote.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur