Tag: Confirmation

Daily Check-In 11/12/2018

Monday, November 12, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

Former Republican Party Finance Co-Chair and convicted felon Michael Cohen traveled to Washington to meet with the Special Counselor’s team.

On a holiday.

That’s pretty weird.  Was this the only day that everyone was available?  Did some lawyers want to charge more for government holiday pay?

Or, is something big in the works?  Something so big that working on a federal holiday is worth it.

Stone and Corsi

THREAD: What does news that Roger Stone’s friend Jerome Corsi will be indicted for perjury tell us about the state of the Mueller investigation?

Renato Mariotti added,

Ken DilanianVerified account @KenDilanianNBC

BREAKING: Roger Stone pal Jerome Corsi tells my colleague @annaschecter that Mueller’s investigators informed Corsi about a week ago he will be indicted for perjury. “When they have your emails and phone records…they’re very good at the perjury trap,” he says.

1/ Over the past several months, it appeared that Mueller’s team was focusing on building a case against Roger Stone. Several of Stone’s associates were reportedly interviewed by Mueller’s team, including Corsi. Stone himself has publicly stated that he expects to be indicted.

2/ For that reason, many observers expected an indictment of Stone now that the midterm elections are over. Corsi was interviewed two months ago regarding his communications with Stone, which suggested that he could be a witness for Mueller in a case against Stone.

3/ Today’s news indicates that Corsi will *not* be a witness for Mueller against Stone and is not “flipping” against Stone. It suggests that, instead, Mueller believes Corsi lied in order to help himself or Stone.

4/ To bring a case against Corsi for making a false statement to federal agents (which is what the “perjury” charge would be if he did not testify before the grand jury), Mueller would need to prove that he did so knowingly and willfully.

5/ If Mueller does bring a charge against Corsi for making a false statement, it indicates that Mueller has evidence that directly contradicts Corsi’s statement and that there is evidence that would contradict any allegation that Corsi merely made a mistake or misremembered.

6/ Mueller’s decision to prosecute Corsi could mean that Corsi’s statement (if left unchallenged) would make it more difficult to bring a case against Stone by contradicting key evidence. That would help explain why Mueller is spending resources to indict Corsi.

7/ Alternatively, Mueller could believe he needs Corsi’s cooperation to indict Stone. Indicting Corsi could give him a strong incentive to flip on Stone. We should know soon. Typically, in a white collar case, the defense is notified not long before an indictment is sought. /end

Jerome Corsi, the supposed founder of the Birther movement and one of Roger Stone’s friends, is allegedly about to get indicted.  The only question is when.  Assuming that Corsi is telling the truth, I’d assume this was soon.

This is pretty weird to me, but in many white-collar cases, it’s considered polite to inform a target of an investigation that they will likely be indicted soon.  I assume they don’t do this to people who are immediate flight risks, as it would seem a bad idea to tell someone rich guy with a private jet that he’s about to be arrested and definitely shouldn’t flee to a country without an extradition treaty.

We’ve mentioned Corsi a few times before, starting with Daily Check-In 09/05/2018.  He’s a known associate of both Roger Stone and Alex Jones, and was one of the founders of the racist as fuck Birther movement.  For those lucky enough to not know what that was, this was the crackpot conspiracy theory that Barack Obama wasn’t born in the United States but in Kenya, and that his birth certificate, birth announcement, and all documentation surrounding his birth was faked as part of some vast government conspiracy to groom him to be the first black president.  Trump jumped on this shit in like 30 seconds, and all of the old white racists that couldn’t find a better reason to hate Obama and who watched too much Fox News or listened to too much Right Wing Media ate this up like mac and cheese.

It almost feels like something’s building.

RUMOR MILL SPECIAL: RADIO SILENCE

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Let’s sort it out. [THREAD]

1/ Two nights ago, Rupert Murdoch called on Mitch McConnell, after hours. Since then, two Fox News-related Twitter accounts have not tweeted.

2/ Trump fired Sessions on Wednesday, replacing him with human dildo/Putin collaborator Matt Whitaker. Sessions had asked to stay until Friday and was told to leave immediately. So there was clearly some urgency to install the dildo…er, puppet.

3/ The Democrats won the SHIT out of the Midterms. Come January, the House check on Trump will leave him so hobbled, he’ll be like the dude from Misery.

4/ Trump went to Paris, ostensibly for an Armistice Day centennial event. He skipped the event, and much of the dinner tonight, because of “weather,” which everyone seems to agree is a bullshit excuse.

5/ Tomorrow, Trump is meeting with Putin, who pwns him. There are reports of House Repubs in Paris, just there for no good reason.

6/ Whitaker has no authority as “acting AG.” Also, he’s been called “a crackpot” and “a fucking moron,” and he was a key player in a company that bilked veterans out of their savings. Trump CLEARLY picked him b/c he thinks Whitaker will help him cashier Mueller. WRONG!

7/ Junior thinks he’s going to be indicted any day now. With the election over, OSC is free to resume busting collaborators.

8/ Kushner is rumored to be cooperating with Mueller since last December.

9/ The WSJ broke a story saying Trump AUTHORIZED and DIRECTED the hush money payments to Stormy Daniels and the Playboy model he’d boinked. That’s a felony, all by itself.

10/ New York AG has Trump’s longtime mob accountant under immunity, and the case will eventually take down ALL the Trumps, including Ivanka and Eric. Assets will be seized.

11/ Trump’s usual deflections are not working. He’s scared, literally holed up in a hotel room, waiting to meet with the man who pwns him…and could end him in the blink of an eye. The meeting will be recorded by every intel agency under the sun, BTW.

We are all impatient. We all want justice. We WILL get it. And then some. Soon. Be patient, stay frosty, and don’t lose faith. Shit is about to get VERY real. WE SHALL PREVAIL. [END]

 

Peculiar

I’ve waited a long time to use that gif.  It’s from Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan.  Responding to a weird call from a science station, the Enterprise runs into another Starfleet ship, the Reliant.  However, instead of the customary greetings, the Reliant runs silent.  What Kirk doesn’t know at this time is that the Reliant was taken over by his old nemesis Khan.  This is the moment that Kirk realizes that something ain’t right.  About 15 seconds later, the Reliant opens fire on the Enterprise.

I feel like we’ve finally reached the Damn Peculiar moment.  Let’s go over the events of the past week.

  • Democrats win the House. Daily Check-In 11/06/2018
  • Trump attacks the Press in an off the rails conference. Daily Check-In 11/07/2018
  • Jeff Sessions is told to quit, and a completely unqualified lackey is named as his replacement. Daily Check-In 11/07/2018
  • Protests start across the country, and news comes out Trump’s dragging his feet on submitting answers to Mueller about the Russian Investigation.  Also, Donnie Jr. is scared shitless about getting arrested. Daily Check-In 11/08/2018
  • Mueller’s team is running out of patience with Manafort. Daily Check-In 11/09/2018
  • The Wall Street Journal says that 36 people went on the record to say that Trump was heavily involved with the Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal payoffs, and that the only reason his ass isn’t indicted right now is that he’s the President. Daily Check-In 11/09/2018
  • Fox News, Wikileaks, KimDotCom, and the National Enquirer all go radio silent.  Matt Drudge from the Drudge Report deletes ALL of his tweets.
  • Trump skips the centennial remembrance of the WW1 Armistice.  He claims bad weather, but that doesn’t stop anyone else but Putin.  Trump supposedly meets Putin while the rest of the world’s leaders are out doing their job.
  • Trump and Pence both skip going to Arlington National Cemetery on Veteran’s Day.  This is literally the easiest thing that a person can do to look presidential, but they both skip it.
  • The press is finally questioning whether or not he’s losing his mind.  SPOILER: He is.
  • Trump has allegedly locked himself in room like Howard Hughes.  Thanks for the image of his fat ass pissing in cans of Diet Coke with his mushroom shaped pecker, Tea Pain.
  • CYBERCOM releases examples of Russain Spyware for the world to see.
  • Rumors of legal proceedings continue to ramp up.

I don’t know exactly what is on the horizon, but stay frosty because I think something’s going to happen soon.  There are too many coincidences here for this to be coincidental.

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

Veteran’s Day Observed

 

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

Had a patient who was shot right in the belly. So much blood rushed out of his abdomen when we made our incision that it spilled all over the surgical field and onto the floor. We transfused as much blood as we could while removing his spleen. He didn’t make it. #ThisIsOurLane

I had another patient who got shot in the head. It was touch and go until her brainstem herniated. Her family was at her side when we took her off life support. She was an organ donor and she gave the gift of life to so many others despite having her own ripped away by a bullet.

Sometimes gun violence isn’t even intentional. On my first overnight call as a surgical intern, a nine-year-old girl was rushed into the trauma bay. It was the 4th of July and people were shooting their guns straight into the sky. X rays showed a bullet lodged in her back.

Every doctor of every medical specialty must deal with the heavy emotional and physical toll of mass shootings. This is not only our lane, but the lane of our patients and the lane of every single American who is sick of this out of control epidemic of gun violence.

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

One last point on the Tucker Carlson protest, you don’t wanna believe the protestors, why not go with the police version of events? Cause there is a police report. I’m gonna say that’s a more reliable source than Mr. Carlson. And it completely contradicts him. Here goes.

First, the police interacted w/ the protestors as they were leaving & they didn’t arrest anyone. They actually saw the person spray-paint the anarchist symbol on the driveway. The protestors were walking away slowly. Two walked with canes (yes). No one tried to run.

BTW there were 4 legal observers at this protest. People going to someone’s house to break in, don’t usually take legal observers.

The police talked to the protestors about not having a problem w/ them exercising their first amendment rights but that spray-painting the driveway was crossing the line. That was the issue.

If the police had received a frantic 911 call from Mrs. Carlson saying she was terrified, had locked herself in her pantry & people were trying to break into her house, there is no way that the police would have let the protestors go. They would have made arrests.

They would have sent so many squad cars to that location if she represented what was happening in that way. Police tend to over-react. They didn’t here. That tells me Mrs. Carlson did not call & say she was being terrorized.

In the police report, there is no mention whatsoever of any damage to the front door of Mr. Carlson’s residence. Not a scratch. This is consistent w/ protestors’ saying they simply knocked on the door and then left a placard resting on it before retreating to the street.

There is no mention in the police report of anyone chanting anything about pipe bombs or chanting any sort of threats against Mr. Carlson.

What the police appeared to be focused on was the spraying of the anarchist symbol on the driveway of the residence by one person. That was the extent of the property damage. That was the extent of the activity that could possibly be construed as unlawful.

Even when it was reported that the incident was being looked at as a hate crime, it appears that this was the focus of the investigation.

(How that could in any way be prosecuted as a hate crime is a subject for another day.)

What is of concern now is that, since there has been such misreporting to which unfortunately people on the left like @StephenAtHomehave given credence, there will be political pressure to bring criminal charges for activity that is not criminal.

I hope those people will take the time to reconsider and correct their misstatements.

I was at the protest outside Tucker Carlson’s house. Here’s what actually happened. – ThinkProgress

Oh, hey, let me add, I’m not one to point to the police as a credible source. I am a public defender, people. But they are a more credible source here than Tucker Carlson. I am also trying to beat the MAGA folks at their own game. Like, what, you don’t believe law enforcement?

P.S. And, yes, for those who have asked, I have a copy of the actual police report.

 

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

PRIESTS

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

 

THINKING AHEAD

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

EXCELSIOR!

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

RUMOR MILL

I recommend checking this video out.  It helps lay out the cult-like mentality that many of Trump’s ardent supporters show.  It talks about shared group delusions, or the folly of many.  There’s a french term for it, but je ne no pas parler francais.

Ok, I only know un petite francais.  Enough to understand a Montreal Canadians hockey game, and if the word is close to the Spanish version, I can read it and guess the context as well.

Dear just wondering on a scale of 0-100 What are the chances that I found Trump’s Chicago Mortgages with Deutsche Bank?

What if I told you – default resulting in the 2008/2009 NY lawsuits – springing loan (actual legal term) – Trump lent himself money derived from Deutche via his Chicago Holdings I need a few more hours to read and follow the money trail. Stipulation NY👇🏻

Deutsche Bank’s original loan? Origination Date: 02-08-2005 I might be silent for a few hours because I need to research more question is, can I afford the purchase fee to obtain THIS & the 4 other mortgages? Please send Pizza, Red Bull & a cigar STAT😂👇🏻😂

Dear remember how I joke that I have multiple murder boards (YES that’s a technical legal terminology) going? Here’s Trump’s Chicago Wabash and I’m not done (yet) Please send pizza & Red Bull /snort

I’m comfortable in saying I’ve isolated the Deutsche Bank Mortgages for the Wabash Project Now pardon me while I pay the $ to download each of these. I wanted to ensure I had ALL the Trump shell & shelf companies before paid for more docs Please give me a couple of hours

Guys $18 might break me Yes or No pay for the mortgage documents?

I mean I did create a separate pacer account from my work account. Mr chewed my ear off when he got the email notification<snickers> So I changed the billing to pull from my kiddo’s college fund (totes joking)

Say HOLA to 401 N Wabash Loan (2014) from Deutsche Bank Since I paid for the documents, should I send them to staff? The interesting aspect is the “exclusive Trump branding” is specifically exempted from the Ts &Cs of this 6/03/2014 Mortgage

Here’s the Trump “brand” exemption it’s on page 5

Let’s back to the the very beginning 2004…$109,000,000.00 loan via Fortress Notice the $50,000,000.00 exit fee? So the buyer pool based on this mortgage I’d argue all funds to/from trump. cc

Alright I’m going to move this to the blog. I’ll try to finish it tonight but realistically it will probably be tomorrow after work (deepest apologies) ETA tomorrow around 8pm-ish. I -think- I’m missing another mortgage. It’s odd two of the mortgages matured in Election Day 2016

Never underestimate Spicy.

 

That’s it for Monday.  I’m not sure what’s happening this week, but it feels like something different is going this week.  I can’t put my finger on it, but things feel… different.  We’re past the moratorium on screwing with the upcoming election, so Mueller’s team is free and clear to start putting bad people in jail.

Trump won’t go softly into the night.  He will fight and claw, destroying everything in his path to protect himself.  That includes burning down every institution around him.

Stay frosty, and keep your head on a swivel.  Shit’s about to get weird.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 11/09/2018

Friday, November 9, 2018 and the weekend

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

 

COHEN, NEW YORK, AND THE OTHER LAWSUITS

To get a sense of what prosecutors might be driving at, it’s useful to review the specific campaign finance charges Cohen pleaded guilty to back in August.

First was “causing an unlawful corporate contribution” to a federal campaign. Prosecutors alleged that Cohen “caused” AMI’s $150,000 payment to Karen McDougal, and that that violated the law because it was effectively a campaign contribution for Trump, in excess of the legal limit on what a corporation like AMI is permitted to give to a campaign.

Second was that Cohen made an “excessive campaign contribution” himself, by paying $130,000 to Stormy Daniels. This, too, was effectively a campaign contribution for Trump above what Cohen was permitted to give, prosecutors said.

Now, prosecutors have amassed evidence Trump — Cohen’s employer — was personally involved in and informed about both of these payments, and was encouraging Cohen to make them happen.

So it certainly seems that Trump himself may be vulnerable to similar charges, considering how involved he was in both of these payments.

But don’t expect him to be indicted anytime soon. Even before Whitaker arrived at the Justice Department, it was highly unlikely federal prosecutors would actually try to indict a sitting president — DOJ has long held that that can’t be done.

What the SDNY prosecutors’ next move will be, then, remains unclear. It’s possible they’d amass evidence on crimes committed by Trump, and leave it to Congress to decide what to do with that evidence. Trump could also theoretically be charged after he leaves office. But the Journal piece is a reminder that this investigation remains very much alive.

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

COLD WAR 2.0: VETERANS DAY EDITION

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM &WHITE NATIONALISM

 

SCOTUS 

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

IMMIGRATION

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

 

MICHELLE OBAMA

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

 

THINKING AHEAD

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

RUMOR MILL

Indictments of Stone, a friend of the president since the 1970s, or worse Trump’s son and namesake, seem certain to push the White House into greater paroxysms of rage. What might happen then is anybody’s guess. Trump’s desperation to shut down the Mueller inquiry before it cuts very close to home is therefore understandable.

It’s also a fool’s errand. In truth, it’s far too late to shut the Special Counsel down altogether. Mueller and his staff, veterans of Beltway wars, were not surprised by this week’s events. They were prepared. Any efforts by Acting AG Whitaker to block indictments will go public quickly and throw Washington into deep crisis. For Trump, there are no exits or off-ramps left.

When Mueller informs the public of more indictments is an open question. That they are coming, however, is not. And there are lots of them. The Special Counsel has been at work for almost 18 months now. An Intelligence Community official who assisted the Special Counsel’s investigation told me this week that Team Mueller is holding “dozens of sealed indictments” of people associated with the president, his 2015-16 campaign, and his administration. “Nobody who’s close to the Russians is getting out of this,” said the IC official. When will those indictments start being unsealed? Watch this space.

Sadly, that didn’t happen.

 

That’s it for the last few days.  Like I said on Daily Check-In 11/08/2018, I was out for the last few days.  Surprisingly, all hell did not break loose.  Instead, a whole new hell opened up on the Stormy front.  36 sources went on the record for that story to say that Trump was intimately involved with the Daniels and McDougal cover-up.  36.  That’s a lot of fucking people to corroborate a story.

There’s a reason why that unless there’s some crazy stuff going on that the two top groupings are the Russian Investigation and the Cohen matters.  Ok, I cheat a bit and include all of the other lawsuits in the Cohen section, but Cohen’s investigation might be the one that brings Trump down faster.  It’s not his greatest threat, but it’s the closest.

My schedule should return to semi-normal this week.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

 

 

Daily Check-In 11/08/2018

Thursday, November 8, 2018

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

No one is above the law.  No one.

Mueller’s team has begun writing its final report, multiple sources told CNN.

Before that happens, one of the major questions in the Russia investigation remains to be answered: What happens to Roger Stone, a longtime Trump adviser who has been at the center of a whirlwind of legal activity behind the scenes even during the election-related public quiet period by Mueller.

As recently as a month ago, Mueller asked Trump’s lawyers to produce call and visitor logs related to Stone from Trump Tower in New York, according to a source briefed on the matter. The request at this late stage of the investigation came as something of a surprise to lawyers involved, given that the Mueller team has been focused for months on Stone and his activities before the 2016 election.

Among the questions Mueller has asked the President to provide written responses on are queries about Stone and his communications with then-candidate Trump, according to a source briefed on the matter.

Expect the shit to hit the fan very soon.  As far as that request goes, remember when Paul Manafort flipped? (Daily Check-In 09/14/2018). In the last two months, he’s spent over 40 hours interviewing with the Special Counselor’s team.  My guess is Paulie Walnuts told them about Roger Stone visiting Trump Tower on certain dates, and gave them proof of the visits.

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

 

SCOTUS 

 

#METOO

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

 

FIXING THE INTERNET

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

1/ Some observations on the Jim Acosta situation: I watched the exchange just moments after it happened, then sent out a tweet saying the woman who tried to get his microphone should be lose her job. Swiftly, I was hit with a bot-driven response.

2/ The responses, as you’d expect from bots, were strikingly similar. It was either “Acosta assaulted that woman” or “he karate chopped her arm.” (I thought the karate reference was odd, since nothing in the live video suggest such a motion. It’s also just a random word choice.)

3/ My mentions swiftly filled up with other MAGA accounts – maybe real, maybe more bots – parroting the same language. That soon became the narrative on the right: Acosta attacked that woman! Hours later, the White House released a statement making a similar allegation.

4/ The statement said Acosta placed “his hands on a young woman just trying to do her job as a White House intern.” A few hours later, Sarah Sanders releases a doctored video that has been sped up so it looks like Acosta’s arm is moving in – you guessed it – a chopping motion.

5/ I bring this up because I happened to be tuned in to the whole evolution of this thing. It shows just how swiftly an absurd disinformation campaign can be set in motion and how willingly the White House embraces these campaigns and uses them to stir the pot.

6/ I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ponder whether this could all have been a set up. Personally, I don’t think this administration is clever enough for that. I think they just stumble into other people’s nonsense and roll with it if it helps them. But this should concern us.

7/ Both because this administration is a moral vacuum that will leverage disinformation – and disseminate it – without a second thought. And because we’re clearly in an age where an administration that’s both soulless AND clever could easily create untold chaos. END

8/ This thread has now become a column, with expert insight from Clint Watts (@selectedwisdom) of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who studies social media disinformation campaigns.

Absurd Acosta story shows how disinformation bubbles from bots to the White House – Chicago Tribune

 

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

Something that gets lost in the discussions about gerrymandering is that while it usually guarantees a certain number of seats for one party, it does so at the risk of getting blown out.  Here’s why.

Let’s say that a fictional city and surrounding area, like Gotham, have 10 representative districts.  Even though the city has most of the population for the area, the map was gerrymandered so that 80% of the population, mostly Democrats in the city were packed into 3 districts, and the remaining 7 are lightly populated but slightly above 50% Republican.  Under normal circumstances, the 3-7 math stays the same every year, especially at the beginning of the decade.

However, over time, some of the people living in the city move out to the suburbs, settling down out there.  Because of this, those 7 Republican districts go from 50% registered Republicans to only 40%, and it’s across the board.  Those 7 safe districts are no longer safe.

There are two main tools involved in the practice of gerrymandering.  Packing and Cracking.  Packing places those in one group in a small number of districts, while cracking splits them into several districts.  Utilizing both tools, a map can be drawn to completely neuter the majority in most cases.  Thing is, that packing and cracking can fail if there’s a demographic change over time, or a wave style election that overcomes the safety margin.  If each safe district is drawn with a +10% lean toward on party, the opposition would have to have more than that to win.  It’s like playing basketball to 50, but spotting the opponent 10 points at the start of the game.  If there’s a difference in talent or abilities, that 10 points can be overcome under special circumstances.

And it’s those demographic changes and special changes that are changing the politics around Dallas.

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

RUMOR MILL

I’m cautious about getting too deep on this story for a few reasons.  Mostly, this article from Yahoo was the only piece I found on this even that didn’t come from the Right Wing Media.  A video surfaced on Twitter for a little while, but that was it.  It makes me wonder whether or not this actually happened, or if it was a planted story.

With Tucker Carlson, I don’t doubt he would do it at all.

 

That’s it for Thursday.  I’m on the road tomorrow.  I’ll try to keep up with some stuff, but when Donnie Jr., Roger Stone, or someone else gets indicted tomorrow morning, I’ll try to cover it when I get time.  In the meantime, I’ll wait for the alerts from WaPo and listen to some podcasts and audiobooks.  I’m about 8 hours into Presidents of War by Michael Beschloss, and I’ve got the Bag Man podcast from Rachel Maddow saved on the phone.  I can at least nerd out on the road.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 11/07/2018

Wednesday, November 7, 2018.  The day after the election.

 

Yesterday, Daily Check-In 11/06/2018, I mentioned how things would get crazy, but I honestly thought that wouldn’t happen until at least Thursday or Friday.

Boy, was I wrong.

 

THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

 

Sessions Forced to Quit

 

Let’s all take a deep breath and look at this for what it is: a desperate, last minute attempt by an idiot mobster to make an investigation into him and his family disappear.

Trump is hoping that he can make this “Russia Thing” go away by firing Jeff Sessions and replacing him with a pick of his choice. Cute, but expected.

This is a little league play, and Mueller is the New York Yankees. They have this wargammed out.

First, if at any point Trump so much breathes, implies, tweets, or says that he picked Whitaker to stop Mueller, then Whitaker becomes an accomplice in a Conspiracy to Obstruct Justice. Whitaker then has the choice between trying to follow Trump’s orders, or follow the DOJ’s rules. If he does try to execute Trump’s wishes after Trump makes such a stupid statement, then his actions would have criminal intent.

Second, notice how Mueller has outsourced so much work to other groups?  That’s to prevent everything from getting buried in the event of Mueller’s firing. Whenever a matter is investigated but not pursued, the attorney in charge has to go on record and explain why they’re not pursuing it for each case. While one corrupt lawyer might be able and willing to pull a Robert Bork, most of the U.S. Attorneys won’t do that.

Third, there are several Dead Man Switches built into this investigation. The best lawyers in the world spent the last year and a half planning for this contingency. The Special Counselor’s Office has instructions that in the event of the dismissal of the Special Counselor, then the Senior Assistant Special Counselors are free to pursue the investigations as they see fit. There are about half a dozen Assistant Special Counselors, all of them existing U.S. Attorneys from various jurisdictions around the country. This includes unsealing a whole crapload of indictments against EVERYONE.

Finally, don’t forget the states. When the indictments are unsealed, there will be talk of pardoning the family and the like. Pardon’s are a last ditch effort, and don’t work against state crimes.

The timing kind of sucks, but there are two more things to remember. First, if Mueller is fired before January 5th, the Senate Intel Committee will likely immediately hire him as their investigator. If he’s fired after that date, the House Intel Committee will hire Mueller.

This is a chickenshit move by Trump that reeks of desperation. If this is the opening move in his final play to kill the investigation, he has severely underestimated his opponents.

Supposedly, Jeff Sessions asked to stay on until Friday but was told no.  Coincidentally, Mueller’s grand jury meets on Friday.  Now, it could just be that Jeff doesn’t want to spend the next two days moping around his apartment, or he had some meeting that he wanted to go to, but there are too many coincidences for this to be a coincidence.

This does open up a lot of new avenues.  It’s been rumored for a while that Sessions flipped.  (I’m still looking for the related article, but this date was the first rumblings).  We know that he interviewed with Mueller a long while back (Daily Check-In 01/23/2018), but it wasn’t in front of a grand jury.  Jeff’s up to his neck in his own shenanigans, and Trump just fired him from his dream job with no sign of the loyalty that he showed him.  We know how well that worked with Michael Cohen (Daily Check-In 08/21/2018)

 

RIGHT WING TERRORISM & WHITE NATIONALISM

That pic was taken from a place off the normal tours.  Even the special tours don’t allow that kind of access.  This little Neo-nazi fuck had some special level of access.

 

KHASHOGGI & SAUDI ARABIA

No, it’s not Jamal Khashoggi.

 

#METOO

 

TRUMP THE RUSSIAN ASSET

 

TRAITOR TOTS

 

FIGHTING BACK

It’s on, mother fuckers.  5PM local time, check for locations.

 

IMMIGRATION

 

COLD WAR 2.0

 

#NEVERAGAIN

Washington residents will face more scrutiny on the purchase of semiautomatic rifles.

Described by both supporters and opponents as one of the most sweeping new gun laws in the country, Initiative 1639 will put new restrictions on the sale of semiautomatic rifles and required guns that are kept in a home to be safely stored.

It was was easily passing Tuesday night despite opposition in many Eastern Washington counties. But it was narrowly passing in Spokane County with about 52 percent support.

Although the ballot title for the initiative refers to “semiautomatic assault rifles” the actual text of the measure makes no distinction between those rifles with certain military features like pistol grips or flash suppressors, and more standard hunting rifles.

So-called assault rifles – a general term for AR 15s and similar firearms that gun-rights advocates scoff at – have featured in many mass shootings, including the recent Tree of Life Synagogue massacre in Pittsburg.

Starting in December, a buyer of any semiautomatic rifle will have to be 21, rather than the current age limit of 18, and pass a more thorough background check. Supporters said the change merely puts the rifles on par with handguns, which have similar requirements in Washington. Opponents said it’s unconstitutional age discrimination against people who are old enough to serve in the military, marry and sign contracts but won’t be able to buy a rifle that can fire a round each time the trigger is pulled. Single shot, bolt action and lever action rifles aren’t covered by the initiative.

Safe Schools Safe Communities, raised about $5.3 million overall with big donations from the late Paul Allen, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and his wife Connie, venture capitalist Nick Hanauer and his wife Leslie. The National Rifle Association backed an opposition campaign that raised about $600,000, and several other groups mounted smaller efforts.

 

THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE

On the same day that Trump fires Sessions, he picks a fight with the press.  This is example #7,509 that Trump has no sense of long-term strategical thinking.

 

TRADE WAR AND ECONOMY

 

GOP: THE PARTY OF LINCOLN IS DEAD

 

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

 

ENVIRONMENT & SCIENCE

 

ELECTION 2018

You can’t always get what you want. But you get what you need: 1. The House. Big time victory overcoming geographic concentration plus gerrymandering, requiring Dem +8.5 margin. If we didn’t get past 218, the ACA and more would have been in huge trouble…

The House committees’ powers to subpoena, to hold public hearings, to hire Mueller if he is fired, then impeach. So Mueller has more job security than ever. (But GOP Senate wins are a reminder not to rush impeachment, and acknowledge that Senate 2/3 removal is not happening.)

The overall national House vote was around D +8.5. I worry about Trump’s re-election. I am less worried today. That solid D majority, much of it booming in the swing states Trump won, is a strong showing for 2020, and you can’t gerrymander it away. (But don’t take for granted)

4/ Look where Dems did well: the key 2020 battlegrounds. PA and Michigan swung back solidly. Wisconsin voted out Scott Walker (who had survived repeated recall attempts). Hillary’s purple states VA, NH, CO and NV stayed solid. Those 7 states are the road to victory.

Here’s the thing.  This election was a lot like Christmas.  We didn’t get the LEGO Millennium Falcon or the Tuxedo T-Shirt or Front row tickets to the Royal Rumble, but we did get the PS4, a bunch of games, aisle seats to the Rumble so we’ve got a good chance of high-fiving some wrestlers, and we got a stack of gift cards.

We got what we needed.  The rest was wishful thinking.

As my colleague Max Rosenthal explained, only a third of Senate seats come up for reelection every two years. Some of them run for office in states that are much more populous than others. This year, Republicans were also in luck because 26 of the 35 Senate seats up for election were held by Democrats. That means the GOP had much less to lose than the Democratic Party. On top of that, many of those previously Democratic-held seats were located in states where voters supported Trump in 2016.

So, even to preserve the status quo, Democrats would have had to win more voters overall than the Republicans did.

There are lot of screwed up things with American politics.  One of them is the selection of Senators.

Back in the day, in 1787, the Founding Fathers of the United States debated over how representation should be set up.  The smaller states, those with small populations, wanted each state to have an equal voice.  The larger states wanted representation based off of population.  Eventually, a compromise was reached so that both solutions would be used.  The House of Representatives would be based off of population, while the Senate would have equal numbers of people per state.  This was loosely modeled after the British Parliament, with the House of Commons and the House of Lords.  It was also decided that certain functions had to begin in different places.  Requests for money have to come from the House, while the Senate gives consent on appointments.

House members are up for election every two years, in even number years.  A senator serves a six year term.  It was decided a long time ago to have one third of the senators run for a new term every two years.  Since a President runs every 4 years, that means that every other senate race is at the same time as a presidential election.

From 1789 until 1911, Senators were appointed by the states.  This was changed with the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, which made Senators a position directly elected by the people of each state.  Before 1911, each state would select their own senators, usually by the state legislature choosing one of their own to send to Washington.  This caused some problems when the states couldn’t decide or agree.  Eventually, this amendment made it so that the people elected them directly.

In the event that a Senator is not able to complete their term, the state can choose a replacement until a special election is held to fill the vacancy.  Each state is a little different, but generally they’ll hold a special election to line up with an already scheduled election.

Now, to understand how it is that the Democrats could lose Senate seats while gaining a fuckton more votes, let’s look at who was running, and where.  There were 35 senate races yesterday.  33 regular ones and 2 special elections to fill seats that were vacated due to resignations.  Out of those 35, 26 of them were Democrats.  Remember when I said that a Senator serves 6 years but a President serves 4?  They run in years that are cleanly divisible by 4.  Or, for the computer programmers out there:

if Year mod 4 = 0 then Election(POTUS);

Sorry, my syntax sucks.  Mod is modulo, or the mathematical way of looking at the remainder of a division problem.  In this case, if the year is divisible by 4, then it’s a Presidential run.

So, it’s the 2018 election for these senators that were elected in 2012.  What happened in 2012?  Barack Obama won reelection, and a lot of Senators rode his coattails to victory.  In the six years since then, the political landscape has changed.  Several of those 26 senators are now running in states that voted for Trump in 2016.  There was nearly no room to improve, but so many ways they could lose.  They only way for the Democrats to gain a majority in the Senate would have been to hold each seat they had, and pull of at least a few upsets.

This was unlikely to happen.

However, things aren’t all doom and gloom.  Demographics are changing.  The Democrats picked up a decisive win in Nevada, were very close in some places that they shouldn’t have been close at all like Texas and Florida, and won seats in states that Trump won in 2016, like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

As far as the 2020 Senate Map looks, it’s almost the opposite of this year’s.  Only 12 of the 33 seats up for reelection are held by Democrats, and only Alabama’s Doug Jones and Michigan’s Gary Peters are in a state that went for Trump.  Out of those 19 Republican senate seats, at least a dozen of them are in competitive locations.  Plus, we have no clue what will happen in the next two years, but a lot of it doesn’t look good for Team Red.

 

THINKING AHEAD

Yes, it’s time to start thinking about the future.  Fuck.

 

PROGRESS IS PROGRESS

 

IN OTHER NEWS…

Just, don’t.  Ever. Propose. In. Public.

 

RUMOR MILL

THREAD: What should we make of Trump’s firing of Jeff Sessions?

1/ Today Trump fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The letter above is written as a “resignation” by Sessions, but it makes clear in the first line that Sessions resigned at Trump’s request. This has been rumored for months, so it doesn’t come as a surprise.

2/ The most immediate consequence of this firing is that Matthew Whitaker is now the Acting Attorney General. (Trump was able to appoint an Acting AG partly because Sessions agreed to resign rather than to be formally fired.)

3/ Whitaker previously wrote in this op-ed for that Mueller should not be permitted to investigate Trump’s finances, arguing that Mueller was “going too far.” He argued that Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein should order Mueller to rein himself in.

4/ Unless Whitaker is confirmed by the Senate, however, he will not oversee the Mueller investigation. For right now, until/unless Rosenstein is fired, Rosenstein still oversees the Mueller investigation.

5/ If Rosenstein is fired, Solicitor General Noel Francisco would oversee the Mueller investigation until a new Attorney General is confirmed. Many are concerned that Francisco would limit or impede Mueller.

6/ Francisco is a former partner at a law firm that represents the Trump Campaign, which could be a conflict that would prevent Francisco from overseeing the Mueller investigation. But he obtained an ethics waiver in April relieving him of the conflict.

7/ (The article linked in the last tweet discusses potential issues with that waiver.) In any event, a new Senate-confirmed Attorney General would oversee the Mueller investigation regardless of whether Rosenstein is fired. For that reason, the GOP Senate majority matters.

8/ As a practical matter, if Rosenstein is fired and/or if the Senate confirms a new Attorney General, the Mueller investigation is at risk because whoever oversees Mueller could limit his actions or impede his investigation.

9/ Under the special counsel regulations, the AG can require Mueller to explain steps he takes and overrule them if they are “so inappropriate or unwarranted under established Departmental practices that it should not be pursued.”

10/ If Mueller is overruled, Congress must be notified. In addition, Mueller can be removed for “misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or for other good cause, including violation of Departmental policies.”

11/ So the firing of Sessions has obvious potential practical consequences. It also has significant potential legal consequences for Trump. Mueller is already investigating Trump for obstructing justice, and the biggest hurdle in an obstruction case is proving “corrupt” intent.

12/ The firing of Sessions could provide relevant evidence because many of Trump’s statements and actions indicate that he was angry at Sessions for recusing himself and because he wanted an Attorney General who would protect him.

13/ For example, Trump reportedly ordered the White House Counsel to stop Sessions from recusing himself. When McGahn was unsuccessful, Trump reportedly erupted in anger, saying he needed Sessions to “protect him” and “safeguard” him.

14/ Then, according to , Trump erupted at Sessions after Mueller was appointed, accusing him of “disloyalty” for recusing himself from the Russia investigation at the recommendation of career Justice Department staff.

15/ All of this (and other comments Trump made since) suggests that Trump was angry that Sessions would not interfere with, stop, or restrict the Mueller investigation. This and other evidence could indicate that Trump fired Sessions with the intent of impeding the investigation.

16/ As I write this thread, many of you are indicating to me that Rosenstein has reportedly been removed from oversight of the Mueller investigation. That appears to be inconsistent with prior Justice Department practice, and could provide additional evidence of obstruction.

17/ If Trump wanted to minimize the ability of others to argue that he was obstructing justice, he would have waited to try to remove Rosenstein from overseeing the Mueller investigation and done so in a manner that could not be challenged or questioned.

18/ This suggests that Trump’s intent is to restrict or end the Mueller probe. He fired Sessions a day after the midterm elections, replaced him with a man who publicly called for Mueller to be reined in, and that man has already removed Rosenstein from overseeing Mueller.

19/ House Democrats will be able to investigate these matters, and could ultimately impeach Trump, but 67 votes in the Senate would be needed to convict and remove Trump from office. As long as Senate Republicans back Trump, he may feel he has room to act against Mueller.

20/ It would be difficult to end all of the various investigations that comprise what we typically call the “Mueller investigation,” and there are investigations that Mueller doesn’t oversee, such as the Manhattan investigation looking at Michael Cohen and the Trump Organization.

21/ But there is no question that Whitaker could severely burden, restrict, or even remove Mueller. As a practical matter, whether Trump faces consequences depends a lot on Senate Republicans or, in the alternative, state Attorneys General like the newly-elected New York AG. /end

CORRECTION: As and point out, Whitaker is not an “Acting Acting AG,” so he immediately can oversee Mueller if he is lawfully appointed. (I’ll discuss this and other issues in a special podcast out tomorrow morning.)

 

That’s it for today.  The fucked up thing is, for the first time in a very, very long time, I felt relaxed after seeing the election results.  I had a hop to my step, I wasn’t stress eating, the pain in my chest was gone.  Things felt good for a few hours.

Then the Jeff Sessions news broke.  Then the pain returned.

Don’t get me wrong, I hate Jeff Sessions.  I don’t call him the Keebler Nazi as a term of endearment.  He is a racist little shit, and quite possibly the worst person to ever be Attorney General of the United States.  But, because of the importance of the Mueller investigation, keeping Sessions in place sort of guaranteed that nothing bad would happen.  That guarantee is gone.

The other thing that I saw that was completely nuts was the timing of this firing.  Literally, the day after the election, he fired his Attorney General for not protecting him.  This could have been orchestrated before, but why not do this before?  There was no evidence that firing him before the election would make a difference.  If anything, it might have galvanized Trump’s base a bit.  Sure, it might have cost the Republicans a few more seats in Congress, but not enough to risk a supermajority.  No, something else is up.

Remember over the last couple weeks all of those stories about Donnie Jr. and Roger Stone about to be indicted, and how they’re becoming concrete in the last few days? (Daily Check-In 11/05/2018,Daily Check-In 11/06/2018). I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some fire to that smoke and Trump is trying to end this investigation now because his son is about to get arrested.

Not only do I expect some shit to happen this week, I’m counting on it.  Mueller’s team has traditionally dropped indictments on Friday morning.  This weekend, I’ll be out of town on a trip.  I won’t have access to the internet most of the weekend, so I fully expect the fecal matter to strike the manual air circulation device.

I’m not a pessimist.  I’m optimistic that shit will go sideways at the worst possible moment.

We’ll get through this.  One thing I always try to do is when things get crazy, I look to the Rumor Mill and see how they’re reacting.  While everyone else is pulling their hair out, they’re cooler than the other side of the pillow.

We got this.  It just might not feel like it in the moment.

As I’ve said before, we will come through this crisis.  But we have to live through it first.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

 

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur