Daily Check-In 12/06/2017

It’s Wednesday, and I’ve been under the weather the past few days.  Hell, I’m still sick as a dog, so this week will be light on updates, but that doesn’t mean that the world stops.

Here’s a few of the bigger events from the past weekend, and up to today.

GOP PASSES TAX BILL

TRUMP ADMITS TO OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE ON TWITTER, THEN HIS LAWYER TRIES TO SAY IT WAS HIM WHO WROTE IT FROM TRUMP’S ACCOUNT ON A SATURDAY MORNING.

LATER, JOHN DOWD (LAWYER FROM ABOVE) SAYS THAT A PRESIDENT CAN’T OBSTRUCT JUSTICE.

EMAILS SHOW THAT FLYNN DID NOT ACT ALONE

KREMLIN TRIED TO CREATE BACKCHANNEL TIES TO TRUMP CAMPAIGN THROUGH NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION

TRUMP DIRECTED RNC TO CHANGE UKRAINE POLICIES

TRUMP BENEFITED FROM PENTAGON RENTING APARTMENT IN TRUMP TOWER

MANAFORT COULD HAVE BAIL REVOKED AFTER WRITING OP-ED WITH KNOWN RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENT

HERE’S A LINK TO THE OP-ED

MIKE PENCE IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED

MUELLER SUBPOENAED DEUTSCHE BANK FOR TRUMP FINANCIAL RECORDS

RUSSIAN ANTI-DOPING HEAD DIES OF “RUSSIAN HEART ATTACK” FOLLOWING THEIR OLYMPIC BAN

REZA ZARRAB MIGHT BE PUT IN WITNESS PROTECTION PROGRAM

MUELLER’S TEAM WORKING HARD TO GET RICK GATES TO FLIP ON PAUL MANAFORT, MAY USE SUPERSEDING INDICTMENTS ON HIM

THE STORY OF GP’S ARREST.

TIME PERSON OF YEAR: THE SILENCE BREAKERS

TRUMP ENDORSES ROY MOORE

WHISTLEBLOWER APPROACHED MUELLER IN JUNE WITH FLYNN TEXT MESSAGES AND WARNINGS ABOUT NUCLEAR REACTOR PROJECT

FIRST ATTEMPT AT AN IMPEACHMENT VOTE

 

That’s what happened over the last few days.   At least, that’s what I’ve got so far.  Hopefully, I’ll be back to semi-normal in the next couple days.  But, out of everything, the biggest takeaway from the weekend is this…

Donald Trump’s legal team has changed the narrative again.  They are no longer arguing that he didn’t obstruct justice or collude with Russia, but that they aren’t crimes.

Aside from being completely laughable, this argument tacitly implies that Donald Trump and his team did those things.  They’re not saying “He didn’t obstruct justice, and it isn’t a crime.”  They’re saying “A President can’t obstruct justice.”  Those are two different arguments.

The next biggest thing to happen is the acknowledgement that Mueller has Trump’s financial records from Deutsche Bank.  That bank recently was hit with nearly half a billion dollars in fines for laundering Russian money for many years, and it’s interesting to note that they continue to do business with Donald Trump, even after he sued the bank after defaulting on a loan.  No one else will work with Trump, but DBank keeps giving him money.  Could it be that DBank is receiving matching funds from VEB, VTB, or other Russian banks, and Deutsche Bank is merely the front-facing company in the loan?

Finally, there was an interesting spike in Mike Pence stories in the last few days.  He’s been flying under the radar the last few months, apparently trying to keep his neck clean.  But I noticed something about the stories that were floating around about him.  A general theme.

Pence ratted out his fraternity brothers for having a beer keg in the house.  Pence offered to take over the top spot on the ticket for the RNC on a ticket with him and Condeleeza Rice.  Pence’s wife hates Trump.  Pence sees himself as destined by God to become the President.  Pence continuously made false statements about Mike Flynn’s role in the Transition Team.

There’s a theme, and that is that Mike Pence can’t be trusted.  At least, Trump can’t trust Pence.

This creates a problem for Trump, who is already paranoid AF.  Pence is the one person he can’t fire in the Executive Branch.  There is no statute, provision, or policy on the books which allows for a VP to be removed from office, except by resignation or the impeachment process.  With Trump’s increasing paranoia, these stories build to two possible conclusions.

Pence is angling for Trump’s job, and the only way that Trump can protect himself is to attack Pence.

If I were to wargame this out, Trump attacking Pence on Twitter has a strong likelihood of bringing down the Republican Party as we see it, and creating the split into two parties that I’ve alluded to in The Multi-Party System.

Still, it’s pretty unlikely, but this is 2017, the Hold-My-Beer year.

 

Thank you, and have a good one.

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