2017

HSIOW. Holy Shit. It’s Only Wednesday.

Big things are starting to happen. Rhetoric is ramping up from Trump. Stories about his fitness to hold office aren’t just leaking out, but flowing out. Details of high levels of corruption are coming out like freshman at an art school.

TRUMP HATES EVERYTHING, EVERYONE.

Vanity Fair reports that Trump whines to his old security chief, doesn’t know what the 25th Amendment is or does, and SecDef Mattis and Chief of Staff Kelly might have to tackle Orange Julius in the event of a first strike nuclear order.

SecState Tillerson called Trump a moron after Trump called for a 10 time increase in nuclear weapons.

More and more reports are coming out of the White House that describe either a senior citizen in the beginning thralls of a nervous breakdown or a toddler having a temper tantrum.

In response to these attacks on Trump, threatened the news organizations that say bad things about him.

EVERYONE HATES TRUMP BACK

Trump’s upcoming trip to the United Kingdom has been downgraded from an official state visit. The Queen doesn’t want to meet him. The Mayor of London doesn’t want him there. The Prime Minister can’t afford to be seen with him. Nobody wants to meet with him.

Former House Speaker John Boehner called Trump a “total disaster.”

The biggest, best, and most eviscerating attack on Trump came from Eminem freestyling at the BET Awards. Eminem went off on Trump in an amazing freestyle rap that pulled no punches, left nothing unsaid, and even found an interesting rhyme for orange.

CNN has an article with the lyrics here.

YouTube link here.

CAN WE GET BACK TO RUSSIA? PLEASE?

Yes, it’s taken 3 months to squeeze in a Hamilton reference.

The House Intelligence Committee plans to release the Facebook ads bought by the Russians. The HIC investigation has been a clusterfuck due to partisanship and “Dipshit Cowpoke” Devin Nunes. But so far, they’re the only group that has announced this so far.

Reuters has an important article about the investigation. It describes the way that the three Congressional committees are approaching the Steele Dossier.

The most important thing that comes out of it is a quote from Senator Sheldon Whitehouse.

“As I understand it, a good deal of his information remains unproven, but none of it has been disproven, and considerable amounts of it have been proven,”

That’s a really big deal.

IN OTHER NEWS…

Another article about NYC AG Cyrus Vance burying slam dunk cases against the Trump kids and Weinstein

An older story circulating on Twitter about Trump’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

That’s it for today. Like I said earlier, something big is about to happen. Politicians in both parties are openly talking about Trump, his mindset, mood, and fitness.

And I didn’t even get to the stupidity of trying to get out of the Iran deal.

Thank you, and have a good one.

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 10/10/2017

Tuesday. This is what I call a Slow Trump News Day. Busy by any traditional metric, but with the man-child in office, it’s comparatively slow.

TRIAL DATE SET FOR EPSTEIN

A trial date has been set for a malicious prosecution charge against Jeffrey Epstein, a billionaire convicted pedophile who has been a long time “party friend” of the rich and famous. As Donald Trump said of him “he always had great girls. A little young, but great.”

By the way, Epstein has been accused raping many young girls and pimping them out.

And he’s a friend of Donald Trump.

HOW TO READ THE STEELE DOSSIER

John Schindler did a great write up on how to read raw intelligence like the Steele Dossier.

People looking to discredit it will focus on details, and if even one detail is wrong, Oh Boy! The whole thing must be wrong.

Think of raw Intel like the first draft of a screenplay. The general story is there, but the details are up in the air, like locations and side characters.

I’ll go into more details about this a little later.

IN OTHER NEWS

NUNES SUBPOENAS FUSION GPS WITHOUT DEMOCRATS KNOWING

“Dipshit Cowpoke” Devin Nunes is at it again. Any doubt that he was anything other than a toady for Trump disappeared back in the spring.

CARTER PAGE PLEDGES TO PLEAD FIFTH BEFORE SENATE

Carter Page, the Sheldon Cooper of Treason, has said that he will not answer any questions before the Senate, and will invoke his Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination.

That might be the first smart thing he’s done.

INTERPOL ASKS FOR PROOF OF KASPERSKY PROBLEMS

Interpol wants proof that Kaspersky is a front for Russian intelligence.

ISRAEL HACKED KASPERSKY

Well, here it is.

TRUMP CHALLENGES TILLERSON TO IQ TEST

Yep, that fucking happened.

CALEXIT AND JULIAN ASSANGE

Why am I even surprised at this point? The head of Wikileaks and known Russian shill wants to meet with one of the leaders of the California Secessionist movement Calexit.

That’s it for today. I hope to have some more stuff this week. I’m a little tired tonight.

Today’s the first time I didn’t write about social media in a long time, although I heard about Bing being used by the Russians.

Thank you, and have a good one.

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

Daily Check-In 10/9/2017

Monday, about that time. I wonder if anything happened this weekend…

BOB CORKER AND THE ADULT DAY CARE CENTER

Over the weekend, Donald Trump made a series of tweets attacking Senator Bob Corker (R) of Tennessee, after he announced that he would not seek reelection to the Senate next year. Trump said that Corker asked him to endorse him, and when Trump said no, Corker stepped down from running.

Trump attacked someone else on twitter? Yeah, water is wet, so what else is new?

This time, the Senator being attacked fought back. Not just on twitter, but in several interviews as well.

Bob Corker, one of Trump’s earliest supporters, responded on Saturday Night by saying that the White House had turned into an “Adult Day Care”, and it looks like “someone missed their shift.”

Of course, this didn’t sit well with the Crybaby-In-Chief, who proceeded to go after Corker again. This time, Corker responded in the press. He said that everyone in the Senate thinks that Trump is unstable, and that they’re worried that he’s trying to start World War 3, and that Trump is not fit to serve as President, and if necessary, he should be removed from office.

This is big. Corker was one of Trump’s earliest supporters. He was talked about long and hard for a cabinet position, even as a potential running mate for Vice President. That Corker isn’t running for reelection gives him freedom to say what’s on his mind, and do what he feels must be done.

Bob Corker is the first Republican Senator to openly call for Trump’s removal from office, and he won’t be the last. He is a signal balloon. As more information comes out about Russia, Trump will get more desperate to distract people from it. The Republicans know, even if political gerrymandering is upheld, the 2018 midterm election will be a bloodbath if Trump is still in office. Trump’s popularity is falling like a rock, and anyone tied to him will be dragged down with him. Corker could easily win Senate in any normal year, but next year, even in Tennessee, he doesn’t think he can win.

Besides, he has bigger plans. If Corker’s attempts to galvanize the Congress against Trump works, he will go down in history books as a hero. That’ll look real good in a 2020 or 2024 Presidential run.

MIKE PENCE SPENDS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF TAX DOLLARS ON A PUBLICITY STUNT, THEN RAISES MONEY FOR RUSSIA’S FAVORITE REPRESENTATIVE

Yesterday, Vice President Mike Pence flew from Las Vegas to Indianapolis for a Colts football game. He spent about $45,000 of tax payer money, per hour, to fly on Air Force 2 for 2.5 hours. He arrived, had a motorcade escort him to the stadium, arrived, posted a selfie from a few years ago that was run through an Instagram filter, then walked out after the National Anthem after some players knelt in protest.

His press junket was told to stay in their van since he would be right back.

Pence claimed that he was so offended by this graven disrespect to the troops, he had no choice but to leave.

He then returned to his security escort, got in his car, returned to AF2, then flew 3 more hours to Los Angeles for a fundraiser for Dana Rohrbacher.

After all of this, Trump claimed it was his idea.

By the way, neither of them have even acknowledged the deaths of 4 Green Berets in Niger.

But black men kneeling in protest to bring attention to racism is somehow more disrespectful to the troops than not honoring their memories, or raising money for a known traitor?

For today’s news…

GOOGLE, LINKEDIN BOTH USED BY RUSSIANS TO SPREAD DISINFORMATION

The scope of the Russian Interference is heating up. The Washington Post released detailed information about how Russians purchased election ads on their network. These ads appeared in Google searches, Gmail, YouTube, and everywhere else that Google’s presence is felt.

What they did was take the available information that Facebook has released about the Russians that bought ads on their network, took the emails associated, and saw if those emails showed up in their system. To the surprise of no one who was paying attention, those emails accounted for $100,000 worth of ads purchased for the election. Some werePpro-Trump or Pro-Bernie, others were more abstract, like against Black Lives Matter.

$100,000 sounds like a lot, but this is Google. They spend that much on coffee and lunch in a week. They deal with billions of dollars in advertising. A hundred thousand is a rounding error to them.

In scarier news, the Russians are using LinkedIn. Unlike Facebook where people keep their work history private, or Twitter or Reddit which are as anonymous as the user wants, LinkedIn is a living resume, with contact information, work history, letters of recommendation, and co-workers that can all be exploited.

The story I linked to described several instances in Europe of Russians using LinkedIn to track down their enemies in real life.

You might want to think about hiding some personal info from a global search.

RUSSIA TARGED VETS, MILITARY DURING CAMPAIGN

Ever wonder why it seems that all of the crazy stories during the campaign seem like they were always forwarded by that right-wing veteran or soldier? Well, there’s an answer to that, and it’s not good.

Looks like the Russians were specifically targeting Soldiers and Veterans.

VANCE ACCEPTED DONATIONS FROM HARVEY WEINSTEIN AFTER DROPPING CHARGES AGAINST HIM, TOO.

NYC Attorney General Cyrus Vance has a weird habit of accepting money from people he chooses not to prosecute. This time, it’s Harvey Weinstein. In 2015, Harvey was accused of groping an Italian model. After he didn’t press charges, $10,000 was donated to Jones in the name of Harvey’s longtime lawyer.

Sound familiar?

JOHN KELLY AND THE BABYSITTER JOB AT MAR-A-LAGO

Vanity Fair had an interesting piece about Chief of Staff John Kelly, his ongoing battles with Trump, and his plan to keep Trump out of the Mar-A-Lago dining room.

It sounds petty, because it is. But then again, we have Donald Trump as President.

NEW RUSSIAN DOCUMENTS ABOUT JUNE 9TH MEETING

Time for Donnie Junior to change his story again. The Russians at the June 9 meeting said that the meeting was about sanctions the whole time, specifically the Magnitsky Act.

That’s it for tonight. I’m writing this before watching Rachel Maddow, so of course she’ll have 38 stories I didn’t even notice. Speaking of Rachel Maddow, I’ve noticed a change in her reporting style in the last month. More intensity, more powerful, more forceful. She’s still pulling some punches, but she’s setting up the narrative that something big is happening soon. I wouldn’t be surprised if the first series of indictments come down against Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn by Halloween.

Thank you, and have a good one.

“Without Journalists, it’s just propaganda.”

– Katy Tur

The Multi-Party System

This article is almost complete hypothetical, and is the result of a twitter discussion with @justapedn from Saturday 10-7-2017. Since I’m a little too verbose for 140 characters, I decided to write a blog post about it.

What would a multi party political system look like in the United States?

Like I said, this is all hypothetical, based off of what’s known, what’s being reported, and what’s being rumored.

THE SET-UP, OR WHAT’S ASSUMED FOR THIS EXERCISE.

Assume that at some point between 2018 and 2022, the Republican Party as it exists today ceases, likely due to implications from the Russian Investigation.
Also during this time, the Democratic Party also has its own problems, and falls apart.
The Green Party goes through a reorganization. Jill Stein goes to jail.
Major campaign reforms are enacted, all the way from a Constitutional Amendment overturning Citizens United down to shortening campaign season.

COLLAPSE OF THE TWO PARTY SYSTEM

So, how do I think the current system dies?

In fire. And a whimper.

During the investigations over the next couple years, the ties of Dark Money will come to the forefront. The RNC leadership laundered Russian money into their 2016 campaigns, and the DNC will be involved in some other shenanigans.

In the fallout, both major parties fracture. Whether any piece of them survives is up in the air, but for this piece, I’ll assume they both die.

THE NEW PARTIES

The names are placeholders. Actual party names may vary.

Nationalist Party. Made up of the Deplorables, the Alt-Right, and hard liners on immigration.
Religious Party. The “Religious Right” get their own party.
Conservative Party. For fiscal conservatives who aren’t as hung up on social issues.
Moderate Party. Made up of a mix of centrists from both Democratic and Republican Parties.
Liberal Party. For the more left-leaning members of the old Democratic Party, but not radical by any definition.
Socialist Party. The fringe left. Over time, their policies become the platform of the Liberal Party.
Libertarian Party. This party sees a new age as those that labeled themselves as Libertarians all of these years join this party.
Green Party. This party reorganizes into one that focuses on environmental issues.

CHANGES TO THE ELECTION SYSTEM.

For the most part, I don’t see too many changes at the state and local levels in the Primary elections. It would be the same as today, just more party options.

Where I see changes taking place would be in the General election.

With 7 or 8 options for an office, there’s a good chance that none of them get a majority. There are two ways this can be handled. Either have the top two contestants take place in a run-off, or use ranked voting.

I prefer ranked voting, as there wouldn’t be a need for a separate day of voting. Each voter would rank their choices from first to last. If no one claimed a majority, whomever had the most last place votes is eliminated. Then, the numbers are recalculated, removing the eliminated candidate from the new count. This continues until someone has a majority.

For example, let’s say Al, Bob, Chuck, Dave, and Ed are running for Congress. Al received 35%, Bob 30%, Chuck 20%. Dave 10%, and Ed 5% out of 100 votes. No one won the majority, so it goes to the rankings. Al had the most votes, but was last in more than half the ballots. Most people said “anyone but Al.” Al is eliminated. Bob now has 30/65 votes. Still not a majority, so another round of eliminations. The next worst one was Dave. Since Dave had 10% of the original vote, that gives Bob a majority.

Bob wins the race, and it’s all done in a night.

CHANGES TO CONGRESS

Surprisingly, there wouldn’t be much change to Congress.

At least, as far as the structure goes.

Unless a party has a full majority, then get ready for coalition governments and a lot of deal making and compromising.

For example, let’s say the Moderates win 200 out of 435 House seats. That’s not enough for a majority. They’re still 18 seats short. All of the other parties could combine against them, or the Moderates could make a deal with one of the other parties that has at least 18 seats to confirm that they maintain the leadership. They could join with the Liberals to institute new health care reforms, or the Conservatives to enact a new jobs program.

CHANGES TO THE PRESIDENT

This is where things get weird.

Assuming the Electoral College is still in use, we might see some interesting deals come out of the Presidential Election.

If a candidate does not receive a majority of the Electoral College, the House of Representatives then decides the President, while the Senate chooses the Vice President.

However, there is a month between the General Election and when the Electoral College meet. That’s more than enough time for either a run-off or some kind of deal.

Let’s say the Moderates have the most assumed EC votes after the General Election, but not a majority. They have 230, but need 40 more. The Socialists won California with 55 electoral votes. To avoid this going to the House, the Moderates and Socialists strike a deal. Maybe the Socialists will endorse the Moderates if they adopt a particular platform and name their candidate to a cabinet position.

Similar deals would happen at or after the Electoral College as well.

WHAT DOESN’T CHANGE?

Hopefully, nothing negative changes with the judiciary. Local races will still be based off of local interests. And, in some areas, running on a particular ticket would be a bad idea.

That’s it for today. I’ll get back to the normal posts tomorrow. By the way, if you’re on Twitter, follow @justapedn. He’s a pretty cool cat.

Thank you, and have a good one.